I would like to give to you a little overview of the current situation on the BTC chart. There unfolding a pretty good selling setup but we can't forget also a breakout to the bullish side and this area is also readable so, let's start.
Firstly, as you see, there is an ascending channel inside on the ascending channel. The smaller, which has black trendlines and inside it is a little bit blueish, we can call it also a Bear Flag. The Bear Flag is a bearish/continuation chart pattern and it is really close to being a perfect flag. A day or two more and this flag is too long and it doesn't work after the breakout as it should be. Currently, everything is fine and we can count this as a Bear Flag but okay, enough of it and let's start to count those bearish signs/criteria on the current level could possibly drive the price back down, they are:
1. Fibonacci retracement level 61.8%, known also as a golden ratio and we all know how well the BTC chart has reacted after the golden ratio touch.
2. Bear Flag upper trendline works as a resistance (black line). It has several rejections downwards from the upper trendline and so as now, plus they make a crossing area with mentioned Fibonacci level.
3. The bigger channel middle trendline (blue dotted line) has worked as a support level and now it has worked also as a resistance level. We got a rejection from the crossing area a few hours ago and now those three criteria are on the same price level, so, pretty strong area at $5,300 but that is not all...
4. EMA100 on the Weekly chart is located exactly just above the current price (current price is $5,241), EMA100 is at $5,251. It should work as a resistance and this matching exactly with our crossing area.
The price got a rejection from the crossing area and this ended up with a small bearish candlestick pattern Shooting Star. This is not the best formation but we could get one pretty good pattern, the Evening Star is a possibility after the current 4H candle close. The best possible scenario is a current 4H candle close around $5,230, then we have pretty solid candlestick formation which also indicates that the market may make a move downwards.
IF we get a rejection downwards from the current level and the price falls into the red area then this area is still a pretty big bearish confirmation area (I mentioned this area on my last post you can find it below of this post). Then we have a breakout downwards from the bigger channel, from the smaller channel (Bear Flag), from the head and shoulders pattern and we got a break below the round number $5,000 - really powerful!!
The mentioned breakout area, bullish confirmation area.
If the candlestick formation doesn't support our selling setup from the $5,300 crossing area then we have to consider also that the market can make a breakout upwards. Breakout upwards gets confirmed after the 1H candle close above the $5,330-40. Then we have a breakout upwards from the bigger channel trendline and this could guide us to the $5,700, let's see what we gonna get from the next hours but I'm more bearish than bullish.
Summary: Bearish setup is pretty strong but still, more secure is it after the Evening Star candlestick pattern formation. The current 4H candle close has to close around $5,230, then we have confirmed bearish "power" and hopefully, the setup starts to work with our favor.
Bullish confirmation area is after the selling setup failure and it should get confirmed after the 1H candle close inside the green area.
As said, more bearish signs and the setup looks pretty strong, so, watch out for that!
Please, take a second and support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You!
Have a nice day,
Best regards!
*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it is used for educational purposes only!
Previous analysis:
Firstly, as you see, there is an ascending channel inside on the ascending channel. The smaller, which has black trendlines and inside it is a little bit blueish, we can call it also a Bear Flag. The Bear Flag is a bearish/continuation chart pattern and it is really close to being a perfect flag. A day or two more and this flag is too long and it doesn't work after the breakout as it should be. Currently, everything is fine and we can count this as a Bear Flag but okay, enough of it and let's start to count those bearish signs/criteria on the current level could possibly drive the price back down, they are:
1. Fibonacci retracement level 61.8%, known also as a golden ratio and we all know how well the BTC chart has reacted after the golden ratio touch.
2. Bear Flag upper trendline works as a resistance (black line). It has several rejections downwards from the upper trendline and so as now, plus they make a crossing area with mentioned Fibonacci level.
3. The bigger channel middle trendline (blue dotted line) has worked as a support level and now it has worked also as a resistance level. We got a rejection from the crossing area a few hours ago and now those three criteria are on the same price level, so, pretty strong area at $5,300 but that is not all...
4. EMA100 on the Weekly chart is located exactly just above the current price (current price is $5,241), EMA100 is at $5,251. It should work as a resistance and this matching exactly with our crossing area.
The price got a rejection from the crossing area and this ended up with a small bearish candlestick pattern Shooting Star. This is not the best formation but we could get one pretty good pattern, the Evening Star is a possibility after the current 4H candle close. The best possible scenario is a current 4H candle close around $5,230, then we have pretty solid candlestick formation which also indicates that the market may make a move downwards.
IF we get a rejection downwards from the current level and the price falls into the red area then this area is still a pretty big bearish confirmation area (I mentioned this area on my last post you can find it below of this post). Then we have a breakout downwards from the bigger channel, from the smaller channel (Bear Flag), from the head and shoulders pattern and we got a break below the round number $5,000 - really powerful!!
The mentioned breakout area, bullish confirmation area.
If the candlestick formation doesn't support our selling setup from the $5,300 crossing area then we have to consider also that the market can make a breakout upwards. Breakout upwards gets confirmed after the 1H candle close above the $5,330-40. Then we have a breakout upwards from the bigger channel trendline and this could guide us to the $5,700, let's see what we gonna get from the next hours but I'm more bearish than bullish.
Summary: Bearish setup is pretty strong but still, more secure is it after the Evening Star candlestick pattern formation. The current 4H candle close has to close around $5,230, then we have confirmed bearish "power" and hopefully, the setup starts to work with our favor.
Bullish confirmation area is after the selling setup failure and it should get confirmed after the 1H candle close inside the green area.
As said, more bearish signs and the setup looks pretty strong, so, watch out for that!
Please, take a second and support my idea post by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You!
Have a nice day,
Best regards!
*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it is used for educational purposes only!
Previous analysis:
Comment:
New BTC idea post - really strong resistance just above the current price:
Feel free to hit the "LIKE" button to support my idea post!
Upwards breakout would be a candle close above the blue dotted trendline which is the bigger channel middle line. The upper breakout is a bit risky because there are no clear signs where the bounce may go, one major resistance area is definitely at $5,777.
The downwards breakout gets more confirmed after the 4h candle close below the 5k level. All movements, which stays between 5k-5.5k, are just sideways movement and to trade those areas we need breakouts.
Still, the chart shows more bearish signs than bullish signs, so, You should be cautious. Those bearish signs are just signs, nothing confirmed, the price is just below the bigger channel middle line and it is below of the smaller channel middle line. The smaller channel is an ascending channel and usually, ascendings chart patterns are more bearish than bullish.