Hi Traders
It's been a while, but it's time for another analysis.
I enjoy looking for repetitive patterns (fractals) and believe we are in one.
I like to remove the wicks and use the open and closes as trend line points, and find you can get a clearer picture and perhaps a different view of trend lines. As you can see from the past 3 peaks the only price action to pierce the trend lines were the 11,000 fake out and the 6000 capitulation event in the same fractal.
1. Alligator indicator is tracking the same in each time zone
2. Green resistance trend lines in each zone hitting at the same points
3. Lilac support line in each zone hitting at the same points.
Note how the trend lines in each time zone are touching at the same point on corresponding wave structures.
Since then Bitcoin has been in a downward channel making lower highs and lower lows. I don't personally believe we are in a descending wedge with an imminent bullish breakout. A breakout can happen though - in the HOWEVER section.
I have used the fib time lines that fall exactly with the lows, and predict the next low around Sept 18th. This will be a capitulation event. The RSI is marked with the last 3 capitulation events and this is a strong trend line with 3 points of contact. The 4 should coiincide with the 18th Sept. I would expect a bounce hard back up to the green box should this occur.
HOWEVER...
Should price reach the blue box in the next week or 2, this is a change from the previous 2 fractals and could mean a short term bullish change with a higher high, perhaps around the 10-11k mark. The RSI would reach the blue box before reversing - extrapolating the strong trend line of the peaks. The only advantage I could see for this scenario is the bears get a bigger cliff to throw the bulls off. The capitulation event would coiincide at time zone 13, next Feb.
If it follows the same fractals, another spike to $6600 is possible.
Hope you find this interesting. Give me a like if you do please.
As usual not trading advice, DYOR, blah blah blah...
Chur
It's been a while, but it's time for another analysis.
I enjoy looking for repetitive patterns (fractals) and believe we are in one.
I like to remove the wicks and use the open and closes as trend line points, and find you can get a clearer picture and perhaps a different view of trend lines. As you can see from the past 3 peaks the only price action to pierce the trend lines were the 11,000 fake out and the 6000 capitulation event in the same fractal.
1. Alligator indicator is tracking the same in each time zone
2. Green resistance trend lines in each zone hitting at the same points
3. Lilac support line in each zone hitting at the same points.
Note how the trend lines in each time zone are touching at the same point on corresponding wave structures.
Since then Bitcoin has been in a downward channel making lower highs and lower lows. I don't personally believe we are in a descending wedge with an imminent bullish breakout. A breakout can happen though - in the HOWEVER section.
I have used the fib time lines that fall exactly with the lows, and predict the next low around Sept 18th. This will be a capitulation event. The RSI is marked with the last 3 capitulation events and this is a strong trend line with 3 points of contact. The 4 should coiincide with the 18th Sept. I would expect a bounce hard back up to the green box should this occur.
HOWEVER...
Should price reach the blue box in the next week or 2, this is a change from the previous 2 fractals and could mean a short term bullish change with a higher high, perhaps around the 10-11k mark. The RSI would reach the blue box before reversing - extrapolating the strong trend line of the peaks. The only advantage I could see for this scenario is the bears get a bigger cliff to throw the bulls off. The capitulation event would coiincide at time zone 13, next Feb.
If it follows the same fractals, another spike to $6600 is possible.
Hope you find this interesting. Give me a like if you do please.
As usual not trading advice, DYOR, blah blah blah...
Chur
Comment:
Blue box was a bull trap. Looks like it wants to go to the red box. I'm expecting big drop around the 17th Sept..we'll see
Comment:
correction - not big drop, but bottoming