I'm comparing this weeks candle to the candle of the 29th of June. Now here is where I'm being a bit premature, as this weeks candle is still young and bitcoin being bitcoin could close anywhere between 0 and infinity. But for arguments sake, let's assume that this candle will close above 4600. Keep in mind that if this is not the case, everything I say from won't really be true anymore.
The reason for comparing this weeks candle to that 2015 candle is that they are both the first candles to print a level 2 signal (blue L2 on the chart). Comparing the candles, the current candle definitely looks more , but also prints an exhaustion signal (red dot). This give me more reason to be cautious to the side.
The L2 signal in 2015 resulted in a minor pullback to just below the ribbon. The ribbon then remained neutral (grey), and turned (blue) after the indicator printed a second L2 signal. That was the start of the next bull market (to me at least..) in 2015.
I'm looking for something similar to happen this time: for the first L2 signal to fail to turn the ribbon and the market to pullback. To where? Well, I don't know. And nobody really does..
Will that pullback take us to new lows? Perhaps, and there are a number of cases to be made in its favour. The first and foremost is the amount of hope that the space still has. The catharsis this upmove caused is evident I think.. This does not mean we won't go higher, just that this hope (unfortunately) needs to be crushed before the bear is over. And this sets up for nasty bull traps..
Looking at 2015 you can see that trap laid out clearly, with a drop of about 33% after the first L2 signal printed.
If it goes lower, how low will it go? Again, I don't know. I won't bore you with the obvious levels, truth is, it can spike anywhere between 3000 and 500, perhaps even lower. It may be the final axe coming down, and how much force that axe needs to break the hope is unclear. The only clear thing, I do not fancy being on the receiving side of that blade. Waiting it out here seems to be the wisest option..
Will this time be different?
How many reasons can you think of why it will be different?
How bad do you want it to be different?
"Check yo'self, before you rek yo'self" a wise man once said...
This is the same period but then on the daily timeframe. See for yourself..
In 2015 we had push a bit higher, and then down. One thing to watch will be the daily RSX reaching overbought territory...