We have seen yet another failed rally on Bitcoin and many people are thinking that this is the prelude to a doom scenario where it will go to 5000 or even lower.
Despite that failed rally, I do not believe in the predicted drop, I do not participate in the panic selling. As a matter of fact, I do think we are actually setting up for a nice rally. Do you think I am crazy ? Maybe I am, but read on and maybe you'll find at least some of my reasoning valid.
I'm comparing the current situation to November 2017 :
- the price is very comparable to the level of Nov. 2017, just before the epic rally to 20k - the market dominance in November 2017 also rose back to above 50% - the total market cap, and bitcoin market cap is very similar to Nov 2017 - there was a big sentiment that bitcoin had to drop and test the lower levels, everyone was convinced it needed to correct and drop to 5k or even 3.5 k
We see the same situation today :
- price is very similar to the early November 2017 price - market dominance for bitcoin recently broke above 50% - even more people are thinking that bitcoin will fail and drop down to lower levels (especially since this is the 3rd failed rally)
Now let me ask you, what did bitcoin price do under these conditions in November 2017 ? That's right, it shot straight up to 20k USD. So why couldn't we see the same happening right now ? Especially since we have the following additional conditions that might contribute to that :
- support of the 21 Montly EMA, by many the 21 EMA is considered a momentum indicator, and we are bouncing off it for the second time now (red jagged line) - 6k support has been proven strong in the past, check out the orderbooks and see what is residing around 6k and below - continuously growing interest of institutional money, hedge funds, ETFs, custodial services, even traditional financial institutions - all other positive news that seems to have had no impact at all on price .... - the profitability of mining is endangered if price drops much lower (this is debatable, I know, and depends largely on where the mining facilities are located) - ... there are more reasons but I want to keep it (relatively) short here
So keeping in mind all the above, and especially the similarity with November 2017, don't you think there is a chance that we are setting up for another nice rally ? Share your thought in the comments below (and please add some reasoning, we all can learn from it).
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Good discussions going on here guys. I do notice that most comments are from people who strongly believe Bitcoin will go lower, mainly from a Technical Analysis point of view. The points I made above are more fundamental and although I do see that all technicals point in a further drop (3 failed rallies is pretty convincing), I want to point out that we still need to be careful and at least consider the opposite opinion.
I agree that it does look very similar to november last year, The big difference is that last november was already in a bull market and people are positive. This time around we need a reversal and to change peoples mind something big to happen. This can be a big price drop towards the 5000 (or lower) or some major news. I think we are close but not yet and without the ETF. It is probably gonna be a big price drop and altcoins hitting lower than expected bottom.
Nico.Muselle
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@TheDutchLion, I agree, however the market direction is not decided by the opinion of the masses, it's defined by the "smart money". All it takes is for a couple of those big players to get into the game to take liquidate the short trades, fuelling their longs. Then FOMO can do the rest.
TheDutchLion
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@Nico.Muselle,
I dont think that is how smart money works. the more money you have, the less you have to risk. smart money does not turn a market around, it only accelerates it.
Smart money accumalates on the way down.
this big green spikes that you see, that is smart money just grabbing a couple hundred bitcoin here and there.
these are long term investors.
what turns a market around are the masses, but we dont nessecarily have to buy bitcoin, we just have to stop selling it. holding it will make the price go up because the simple rule of supply and demand. when the price of bitcoin is low enough that people think, screw it, it is not worth selling anymore, might as well keep it. that is when the price is going up. in my opinion we are not there yet. a lot of people that bought in November and before have not made any real losses yet and still have plenty to sell. Hence there is still plenty bitcoin to be bought and smart money will keep getting more.
so yes, it will be the masses that determine when the bull run will start, but only when we will stop selling.