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The "Primary" Uptrend is intact. We are in a "minor" correction currently, with slowing intraday action.
50 Day MA is still trending up, so that is our Primary direction. This has not flattened nor turned down.
Fractals on longer term charts (not shown) are both confirming that Primary Trend is still OK, but some weakness is appearing.
Stochastic is beginning to show that the price is reaching oversold territory and could turn up soon. This should be expected.
MACD has entered a reversal in momentum, now less than zero with green and red line converging and has crossed. This is signalling a possible deeper downturn, but remember it is temporary.
We spoke in previous charts about 5700 being resistance. We hovered there for a while, retraced and broke through eventually. Then I said next resistance was about 6250. We got to right around 6200 (6189) and then hit resistance again, are now retracing, having broken through to the downside of 5700 which should have provided support.
There is STRONG support at 5100 should we go down that far, but I don't think we will.
Conclusion: I continue to HODL my BTC which is a significant amount of coins. I think that a lot of this sell off is because of the hard forks from BTGold and the upcoming Segwit Fork. All of this is similar to the first hard fork we had in July before a massive month long rise in August. Bitcoin went down and then went to new All Time Highs. This is pretty much the same pattern. REMEMBER, the July drop was scary and shook out a lot of people, but those that stayed in were rewarded well.
I am noticing that each BTC spinoff is like a stock dividend with similar chart action. We get a drop in BTC price, just like a stock would, when a new hard fork is in process, only to have a rebound in price once the hard fork is complete (similar to a stock rebounding after a dividend is paid). This is obviously something new we are contending with and if the pattern continues, it will be an unexpected bonus to holding BTC during hard forks, should others manifest. Free Money is always a good thing.
For the record, I am holding all bitcoin split offs for the time being. This just adds to my BTC wealth. Since part of the pattern is that alts rise when BTC falls (as all alts are priced in BTC so there is a reverse correlation), we could see significant jumps in these forked coins after Wave 5 ends. It would also be a good time to place trades on other alts, probably a select few, according to their charts, mostly in the top ten in market cap.
For the record, Wave 5 up in BTC will take us to somewhere between $7000 and $10,000. Personally, I think $10,000 will be a significant psychological barrier with wild news stories abounding and major FOMO from the masses. I actually expect $10,000 but it's too early to tell.
@JosephMoss thanks for your insight! I've read a lot of horror stories that it could drop back to $2700 after BTGold / Segwit2x Fork. Do you still think that that is a possible scenario, or do you see $5100 as bottom low? Or do you think that - based on the current trend - we are moving to 7K + end of this year?
Miru84
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@separaet, been reading the same but I dont believe that. I have been trying to figure that out. I see many of the pros are predicting that because of text book theory. Honestly since bitcoin is global, I believe when really bad news appears then we might se a big drop for 1-2 weeks. There might be like really bad news regarding segwit 2x and so on which might hit us the next weeks, maybe that will be the kicker which spreads out. Just remember, the bad news of china spread around the whole world, so that made an effect which pushed the btc price down.
JosephMoss
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@Miru84, I've come to the conclusion that the bad news (FUD) that comes out is very temporary on price movement. It's all normal in trading that bad news comes out and affects markets. What you really want to look out for is a bunch of bad news coming out and the price going higher or a lot of good news coming out and the price going down. If there is a lot of bad news and we keep rocketing up, we are probably closer to an extreme top or hell, things are just good, good, good. If a lot of good news comes out and we go down, there is a shift in fundamentals and something is really wrong.
I predict that after Wave 5 tops us out, there will be a downtrend lasting 5 waves, probably cutting the price by 50-70%, probably closer to 50. BUT, and this is important, the move will simply shake out weak hands and then we move even higher. Remember this 5 waves started at about $200-$300 and now we are at $5500 or so. That's about 18-25X the low. So we get to 10k, and lose 70% at the worst. That takes us to $3000, and if it's 5 waves up from there then 18-25x would put it at $54,000-$75,000. It sounds high, but if you think about it, we are basically doubling every year from it's all time high. so 75k would only be 3-4 years down the line.
Miru84
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@JosephMoss, This is also a very interesting view. Thanks :)
JosephMoss
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@Miru84, My pleasure....and at this writing, once again, we had that slight dip and we are back up to 5700....that first area of resistance. Let's see where we go from here.
JosephMoss
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@separaet, I've posted my thoughts and calls on the coin. If you check my other posts you'll see I'm pretty accurate. We don't need to make it any more complicated than the simplicity that it is.I do think we need to let this forking settle out though. Then higher prices. BTC fundamentals are strong.
separaet
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@JosephMoss, thanks for the reply, I know you are accurate - that's why I read your insights! Here in The Netherlands some negativity regarding the unmanageability of BTC ( Long transit times, high energy costs per transaction etc.) + the fact that other coins that are better in re-structuring and updating the code. @Miru84 Agree that BTC is global and only something big can change its course.
JosephMoss
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@separaet, Thank you. Keep an eye on that 50MA on the daily. That will tell you when the beginning of sentiment is shifting. I appreciate your appreciation.