Bitcoin broke out of the rising wedge, which is bullish, could mean the sentiment has changed completely and people are buying again. But the bear market is not over yet!
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It's back in the rising wedge again, making it a false outbreak. BUT we are not there yet, a drop below the wedge would really confirm it. It's making an H&S now, if it is still strong, it will fail, just like it did a few times yesterday and will continue to go up again. The fact that Bitfinex is dragging the others down again, 80% chance we are going down again
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Position is almost 200 points in the green now, i have closed 25% now at 8100, just to lock in some (i do this standard if i get the chance ofcourse)Does not mean my view has changed!
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Coinbase chart, here you can see the H&S i am talking about, it has to turn around this point though!
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A drop below 8100 would be the first confirmation of this &S, drop below 8000 would confirm my analysys. 7500/7400 and 6800 could still mean a higher low, if this becomes a bigger ABC correction
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Here we go :)
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small retest, trying to get back in again
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It's hanging to there to long now!
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Could be turning towards the high again. Should drop below of half hour ago
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I have closed half just now, the drop took to long, could be making a bullish flag now with support around 7800. This way I still have a nice profit, and I can let the remaining ride with a stop around my entry level
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Put my stop now around 8000 for the remaining half. No more bullish flag:) if it gets towards the 7900 I will probably add
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Little change of strategy, big chance it will go towards 8200, I will add (only a small extra!!) around 8150/8250, with a stop around 8600
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I have added a third now
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These are the levels to watch now, it could still make a last small leg up, towards 8200, but i rather see it break that small green support area
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Its taking to long again, there are some big buy orders at bitfinex again, 200 at 8160 and 380 at 8130. Normally they should have been sold into already, but something has changed!I saw like a 100 gettin sold, but not like i us to see. No wash trading this time. So i dont have a clue what could happen now
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So it's clear now what happened with all that buying support, just could not let it slide below the 8000 again. I have closed a half around the breakout of that 'flag'. the remaining are still in. Bitfinex is the only one with a higher high, for now that a big resistance. Therefore i have added a few here and put the stop around the 8650 for the remaining. It's getting really tricky now
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I am closing the short i added around 8500 at 8250, to lower my risk
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There were 2 buy walls of 500 BTC at 8450 and 8400. Those get sold quite easy, and minutes later just going up again. It think the support team is pushing it higher!
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I got a feeling they cannot afford to let it get below the 8000 again. I think the (big) miners need a price above 8000. And all the big players that have Bitcoin, the billionaires, also know that a price below the 8000 increases the risk that it gets sold even more and wil go towards the 6K. I think a drop below the 6K could be a very big problem for Bitcoin. I just dont know how much buying power and support they still have
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WHat is quite clear to see, most of the bigger volume candles is sell volume, wich probably means it's only a matter of time
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I have closed half at 7900
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Looking more and more bearish, but we have seen the same shit almost 2 days now, they could just as easily push it up again, thats why i closed have of what i had
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Seems to making a bearish flag now, i have added small part again at 8000.
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Added a few more at 8100, it should not get much higher this flag
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And here we go again :) we could have expected this! Typical sideways action. At the highs giving the bulls the feeling it will break out upwards, at the lows giving the bears the feeling it will crash again
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Broke upwards and now downwards again :) would be really funny if they push it in again. Spoofy is also at work by the way, but he is not letting his buy walls stand cancels when orders are closing.
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I am out, closed them all. Dont trust it. Nice profit, taking a small brake. I think they could be making a double bottom here. That red line around 8200/8150 remains a resistance. It should stay below it, otherwise this sideways action continues
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I sometimes scare myself when i predict things :) LOL, so the double bottom was set and as i was afraid of, it broke the red resistance line and than it become a good support. I am glad i got out when i did. I really had a bad feeling and i have seen this frustrating sideways action a few times before. I know how the mind works when you have a position during this sideways action. You need to bee flexible enough to be contrary against yourself. Ofcourse it does not work all the time, sometimes you miss a big move, but the times you loos money instead of taking a smaller profit, happens much more often than missing out on a big move.
For now, big chance it will drop again to the lower 8K's, i still have a target of around 8800 of the H&S from the 6000 bottom, but ofcourse i assumed it did not have the strength to reach it when i started to short it. I think after the sideways action chances have increased that we could break the 9K instead of dropping to the 6K low. Probably we will make that move from around the low 9K's
I know that current condition is still in the bubble phase. I think we must play carefully on current situation. I still believe that this is not the final phase of the bubble journey...
botje11
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@jeffryang24, You mean that it's not going to crash now already again, it's going to take much longer you mean? It probably will, There is nothing wrong if it would drop towards the 6K again, could make a double bottom to go up again. It's all guessing ofcourse, i think this market wont be following normal TA standards. It was extreme to the upside, could be extreme to the downside. I just try to make trades in between.
jeffryang24
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@botje11, I agree with that. I also found a same pattern from the NASDAQ 100 index. When the NASDAQ index fall, the BTC index goes up. When the BTC fall, the NASDAQ goes up. My speculation is the players from the wall street are playing on both side. From that view, I suspect that current BTC price is also driven by the wall st.
botje11
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@jeffryang24, That's interesting, i actually did not look into that. The last couple of days it seemed to be following each others footsteps
jeffryang24
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@botje11, Oops.. BTC is out of control... lol!!! It try to break 8600. is the dead cat bounce to the moon or just an illusion?
jeffryang24
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BTC just passed the 8500 resistance while the Dow Jones index is still bearish. I think that the players from that market pass their money to the BTC as an escape from loss. Because of that two markets action, the BTC price was pumped up.... This is just my speculation, but from my research after three days, the same pattern always happened. BTC down - NASDAQ up and vice versa. Current BTC market is not healthy and sometime wastes my time for making decision because TA is not played well at this moment.
botje11
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@jeffryang24, That could very well be, i have also seen that on some days when BTC was recovering that the stock markets were also. But i have not really researched it. I am not sure if traders move funds from stock markets to crypto and the other way around. Much to difficult and expensive i think to move it around that many times. With Bitcoin during sideways action, the lower time frame is very difficult.