While some are screaming a bear market is here, trying to be hispters or something fighting the trend, I am looking to buy. I have 2 entries: 42-43k, and then there is 30k-31k. The price could bottom before 31,000. Having small buys before this is still a good RR above 10.
~42k may not be the bottom, the second likely entry is ~30k. It could do this for example:
43,000 is simply a C wave extending to 1. Which Bitcoin often does, but not always, back in September 2017 there was a bear trap where the C wave extended to more than 2, and not many know this but I do: many Bitcoin permabulls of 2018 with big mouths were bears back in September 2017.
What followed this bear market was Bitcoin entering into mainstream and complete hysteria, a rally of 550%, and all the bears caught in the bear trap getting slapped so hard they turned into annoying permabulls (The zeal of the convert) that were a bit upset of getting slapped by a -85% 2.5 years bear market after getting slapped by the bull market and changing their minds 😀
It made EW trends before so we could expect this now
If I consider the price is too heavy like september 2017 I will sell some BTC, but Bitcoin does not HAVE to make a big bear trap like sept 2017 and April 2013. Something happening twice does not make a pattern. I am generally long but catching the bottom is a bit random so we have to try several times, change our minds, etc. By the way 2013 "bubble popping" and then "new paradigm" was a double bottom on an extension of 1.5 and on the first support price found. Often straight line up = full retrace.
Bitcoin could respect EW in this way:
Trade active
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Buy #2 filled. Next ==> Price goes up ==> I buy more, average in.
Can't tell where the bottom is exactly best take it slow and add as it continues (on breakouts, pullbacks, consolidations...)
I was supposed to be in since 12k and have a great average but people much less intelligent than me (the regulators) know best what is good for me and forced me to sell.
It's ok between 30k and 200k there will be plenty of space to get in at good prices.
MrRenev - I've been reading your posts here for about 2 years now, but I remember you from from other Fx forums from 10-15 years ago... I enjoy your posts, but I don't understand how you change your view so quickly... maybe that's your trading strategy, maybe it's the nature of the markets... Can you please explain? Example - about 2-3 weeks ago you mentioned a spectacular crash very similar to "tulipmania", now you're saying BTC would go up 8-10 fold? What would you say now - BTC today is at low 30K... way below your initial target for entry in great expectations for rocket take off... I personally don't trade off of your ideas, so I don't make or lose money and thus no grudge but it baffles me how quickly and drastically you change your views.
MrRenev
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@adoringOwl55210, You have a bias in how you think. I have said for months the price would imo probably go to 200K as well as said it could go there for years. And I have said for years the price would go to zero.
Where is the problem? Read both statements calmly and logically without emotions. There is nothing contradictory about those.
If I could buy into the south sea bubble after Newton did, even the second time, I would :) Why not? Went way up! Tulips too.
harribatu
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when moon?
chuckery
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well that played out nicely! Seesh
astepaul
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yeah so its a bear market.
You trying to justify its not, but then telling its dropping to 20K. Bear then.
Then of course it goes back up, its the next bull...
MarketMakerTraders
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$200,000 will come, but after everyone bleeds out,
My take
looxonline
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@MarketMakerTraders, You literally go around putting this on everyone's charts.... If you want cheap BTC so badly then load up incrementally now and *if* it dips into the 30s.