Been quite some time, my workload is year round, however it's quite seasonal . I'm finally coming off and find myself with some time to do some charting.
With that in mind, lets see if we can find a trade opportunity with BTC.
Bullish Break trade plan:
1) Looking for a potential upwards break of resistance @ 4244, with a target of 4594 for a 4% profit.
Bearish Break trade plan:
1) Looking at two things, firstly to see the reaction @ 4020 (previous resistance, 4h 200 EMA), or, the break of this zone. 2) If support comes in @ 4020, an aggressive trader could place a buy order. 3) If support fails to hold 4020, I would then look for a buy order between 3800-3850 as an ideal zone to re-purchase.
Bullish Key Points:
1) The 21 EMA might cross the 200 EMA on the 4H, the last time the 21 EMA was above the 200 in this timeframe, BTC was trading in the 7's back in September. Observe this closely. 2) We have a symmetrical triangle forming on the RSI, suggests continuation of the trend. 3) VFI shows no divergence, suggests upward movement is legit influx of cash into the market. 4) TD sequential shows we could have potentiallly 2-6 more days of solid upwards movement.
Bearish Key Points:
1) RSI shows bearish divergence, note VFI does not. 2) TD sequential is trigger reversal candle on day 8. 3) Vigor crossed on 4H, as well as upcoming MACD and VFI crossings on 4H.
All in all, I do not see any definitive signs in a trade direction. Obviously, the trend is currently bullish, however I will not look to enter until one of the two scenarios listed above materializes.
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Thanks for reading!
Trade active
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The retrace was deeper than expected, but looking at Ichimoku it looks like hour lagging span has triggered. Need to observe the areas on the chart closely. If the 3978 zone is cleared we should have smooth sailing back to $4100.
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Trade closed manually
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Looks like a fake break to the upside, closed the position as I am unsure of the direction at this time.
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I took a nibble at 3850 amp currently holding; expecting a small retrace and then further upside.