Price deviated strongly from the moving averages, up to 40%. As the Bitfinex panic spike didn't replicate across other exchanges on might leave that aside and stick to the 18% deviation of the 2nd low instead. In the past, such strong declines were often followed by slightly less intense overcompensation to the upside, usually within 1-2 weeks.
I expect a continued rise spiking into the lower 260s, most likely followed by a sharp decline back to the 230-240 area.
So far, the bounce was weaker than expected and took much longer to materialize. Market still seems very insecure, with people waiting at the sidelines to see the outcome of the block size debate. With the next MtGox creditors meeting taking place next week as well as the final silk road auction being announced to possibly take place before the end of the year I can think of several catalysts for the ultimate capitulation of this two year bear market. Make no mistake, once this current correction is over it is very likely to see sub 200 downside. I took 50% profit here, though 260s wouldn't surprise me before this reverses.