I have been staring at the charts for a while now and I believe Bitcoin is in a 5th wave and is approaching the end of this rally. The 2.618 extension of wave 1 is $6460 on Bitfinex and $6250 on coinbase.
We have the weekly 100MA above us which will act as hard resistance.
Whats interesting about this rally is we cleared the weekly 50MA which did not happen in the last market cycle. I suppose it would be too easy if the price followed exactly the same course as last time. As we are now above the 50MA we have to take this into consideration as it will have an interaction with the price on the way down.
As far as a retrace is concerned, I think a lot of people were expecting BTC to drop back down to find support on the 200MA and downtrend line (like last time) and then bounce off but I am not so sure this time around. These waves look like a nice clean set of impulse waves to me, not a strange looking corrective pattern. Because wave 1 retraced a lot (0.786 / 0.854) then wave 4 will not. A bounce on the 0.5 or 0.618 retrace fib is most likely. I think the 50MA is going to start bending down again as we drop and could possibly be a bouncing support for BTC . Notice I have put an failure point in there as well, breaking that would be a bad move for BTC and suggest we go lower. I also have a fib time tool on the chart which seems to line up nicely to a 41-44 day dump like wave 1 did which keeps the consistency through these waves.