Quick question. I've been following you for a while and actually consider your TA very insightful. I see that on the 2nd you were mentioning a further bitcoin dip with bearish bat. I know TA means constantly reviewing and adapting, and it always has 2 ways it can go. Can I ask when you see such a bullish divergence and rising RSI how long do you wait and what level move do you look for in order to confirm and place a trade? Would it be say a 10% increase in RSI over 24 hours, or a 1% move to the upside means its a buy opportunity? Just trying to get a sense of what standards to use. Thank you for your sharing your work.
ArShevelev
⋅
@iaretheanimal, thanks, thats a really deep question. all below is my personal experience, and it may or may not work for everyone.
So when you screening for price actions on the charts you may notice some of this signals coming (patterns, divergences etc), or they in developing stage and you see it will occur soon. So depending on this I take actions for the trade and remember this chart is showed on Daily time-frame and I pointed on video about — You might never know what exactly divergence will make the cause of the move in some direction.
SO key to take action is not in price and not in rsi movement. It's key in RISK that I take into the trade.
As for mid-term trade there is buying opportunity since mid-May and still holding that btc-s, now rsi divergence increases this probability for winning the trade.
But for short-term there is still local regions of resistances and might take another dip, but anyway it is different risk and different trade compared to mid-term.
So after you figured out what market signal consider to use for a trade you will need to figure out risk you going to put into that trade.
iaretheanimal
⋅
@ArShevelev, That helps kinda. So if the risk is to the downside of say 3.5k (because that would be where you set your stop, usually about 1%), but upside is 5k, AND you have the RSI AND upward movement, that would be a trade you consider because it has more upside potential? Sorry if I'm not getting it. Appreciate you walking through it.
ArShevelev
⋅
@iaretheanimal, In first place Risk is the money I am able to lose in trade. So Risk is money I will lose in case I am wrong about the trade.
So if you look at some point of the chart, and say "hmm, the price most likely (probability) will go up according to number of reasons (fundamental, technical)"
After this you should set initial entries and stop loss levels
and if price will go against you you will lose your RISK at stop loss
ontherunsince1905
⋅
Thanks, this was great.
TraderHalai
⋅
interesting analysis, I agree this could play out, however we need to clear a cluster of resistance levels first. Maybe needs to consolidate to build strength
juarezhernandez164
⋅
Great analysis! I agree with you that BTC will face strong resistance at upper 40k's. Price reaction will be quite interesting after that but considering overall bearish trend i speculate strong rejection leading down to 30k support and potentially hitting bottom at 20k before attempting again. Thanks