DanV
Long

BTCUSD - IN POTENTIAL INTERIM TREND CHANGE (RETRACEMENT BOUNCE)

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
Please for details, my last published chart 4 ( Hr             ) 2 months ago following the spike low around 151 originally outlining possible 380- 400 upside target which then looked not likely is potential back.

We have been following our daily time frame chart which I have been using as our Road Map and have served us well.

The larger falling wedge we have been tracking is now severely stretched, so even though it has potential for completing it, the recent sideways price action seems to suggest that we might need to prepare for alternative scenario, which I outlined as possible in my live Hangout (March 2015) and you can access that recording on Youtube link - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CfFxr7sabPk

It might prove premature for this speculative move in interim trend change but serious enough that we should now contemplate it with clear invalidation level in order not to miss major profitable move nor be caught on the wrong side

After making 151 low and moving tom 305 high in 3 swing zigzag , we have been moving in what now looks like possible contracting triangle (of 3-3-3-3-3 construction). If correct we are in final stage of that concluding with possible low around 225 ideally but could spike at 220 which would be invalidation level.

If 225 - 220 holds then we could stage a possible 5 wave move which could be potentially very strong with 380- 420 as initial price target but could go lot higher.

So here is the summary:
1. Possible move from Nov 2013 high to 151 low could be complex WXY zigzag .
2. If correct then move since 151 low could be abc zigzag with 305 high making wave "a" and triangle since wave "b" near completion.
3. For this bullish case to play out we need ideally 225 but absolute low of 220 area to hold otherwise it would be invalidated.
4. Provided the 225 -220 holds we could move in potentially strong 5 wave move.
5. Upside target of AB=CD measured move could give us 380 with some other fib confluence to 420. However, potentially higher prices even in the 800 range would not be out of question and future price data will give us more clues.

Caution:
No matter how high the price might reach, it is important to note that this will be only retracement bounce retracing the decline from Nov 2013 to recent 151 low not a new Bullish Cycle. Meaning that on completion we will drop to retest 151 zone or make new lower low.

I could host a live session soon to explain all this. If you are interested in this please indicate it by your comments with thumbs up and ensure you have tagged this chart for announcement of the scheduled, and register at danv-charting.dom to be notified and to obtain a link to join me.

Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most5 but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.

For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others and follow me on my Youtube channel and Google+ . If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share for all to learn from.

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.

DanV
danv-charting.com
http://www.danv-charting.com
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChJVIJir7nymD9J3ZWoal-w/feed
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#E4bnOJSWcO1zDjBG
wat u think now DANV
Reply
Bravo,
the target was good and just the timing was not quite there, but that doesn't matter. The idea was clearly useful.
Reply
DanV MOD purpurato59
Thanks.

Though personally, the intervening price action did not follow anticipated path hence it got me puzzled and was not able to take full advantage. However, interim trend change indeed develop. and possibly still in progress.
Reply
UPDATE: New updated charts published
BTCUSD - POSSIBLE CYCLE COMPLETION WITH LIMITED UPSIDE
Reply
Hi Dan,
What about this as a count for the recent bull run:

snapshot
Reply
DanV MOD ukmartyn
Thankyou for sharing your chart with analysis. For that count to be correct, you would need to satisfy yourself with requirement that all waves 1,3 and 5 are made up of minor 5 waves within it. I am having difficulties in confirming that. To me it seems more like 3 swings within bullish waves on your chart. The only way all of this move up from 25th Aug could be Bullish 5 waves is if they are part of "Expanding Diagonal which consist or 3-3-3-3-3 formation as I have shown in my chart above which would require a retracement and another slightly higher high to complete.

Otherwise they are just wxy type of formation.
Reply
Chart showing possible 5 wave expanding diagonal of 3-3-3-3-3
snapshot
+1 Reply
Hi Dan, is possible to ask you for some update about what you excpect will happen the next weeks? Thanks a lot
Reply
Thanks for your request. As you know on larger time frame not much has changed. But here is what I can say.

Here is an Old chart you will remember but with amended counts. Based on this we are still at possible resistance zone and price action has not been Impulsive if the Aug low. So still looking at some sort of correction. We could come down to rested the 200 zone before moving higher or will drop in possible zigzag [Z} part of triple zigzag
snapshot



If the Jan low is not low as per the older chart, then it could be low and we are retracing the entire move to the upside in ABC zigzag. If this scenario is correct then we still need it to correct to complete wave B zigzag. But it is not very clear.

If the second scenario then we could retest 200 zone and probably start wave C or ABC to upside which could take it much higher. Hope this helps.

snapshot
Reply
Hi, DanV. May I ask why you're looking for impulse wave, wave 1 can also be a leading diagonal.

Also, no offense, I have not much trading experience as novice trader, do you trade for living? With EW? And if it's I wanna to know how you know EW is a reliable tool to help you trade for living, though most people talk about it, hard evidences I wanna to know badly.
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