We have been following our daily time frame chart which I have been using as our Road Map and have served us well.
The larger we have been tracking is now severely stretched, so even though it has potential for completing it, the recent sideways price action seems to suggest that we might need to prepare for alternative scenario, which I outlined as possible in my live Hangout (March 2015) and you can access that recording on Youtube link - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CfFxr7sabPk
It might prove premature for this speculative move in interim trend change but serious enough that we should now contemplate it with clear invalidation level in order not to miss major profitable move nor be caught on the wrong side
After making 151 low and moving tom 305 high in 3 swing , we have been moving in what now looks like possible contracting triangle (of 3-3-3-3-3 construction). If correct we are in final stage of that concluding with possible low around 225 ideally but could spike at 220 which would be invalidation level.
If 225 - 220 holds then we could stage a possible 5 wave move which could be potentially very strong with 380- 420 as initial price target but could go lot higher.
So here is the summary:
1. Possible move from Nov 2013 high to 151 low could be complex WXY .
2. If correct then move since 151 low could be with 305 high making wave "a" and triangle since wave "b" near completion.
3. For this case to play out we need ideally 225 but absolute low of 220 area to hold otherwise it would be invalidated.
4. Provided the 225 -220 holds we could move in potentially strong 5 wave move.
5. Upside target of measured move could give us 380 with some other fib confluence to 420. However, potentially higher prices even in the 800 range would not be out of question and future price data will give us more clues.
No matter how high the price might reach, it is important to note that this will be only retracement bounce retracing the decline from Nov 2013 to recent 151 low not a new Cycle. Meaning that on completion we will drop to retest 151 zone or make new lower low.
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Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most5 but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.
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Otherwise they are just wxy type of formation.
Here is an Old chart you will remember but with amended counts. Based on this we are still at possible resistance zone and price action has not been Impulsive if the Aug low. So still looking at some sort of correction. We could come down to rested the 200 zone before moving higher or will drop in possible zigzag [Z} part of triple zigzag
If the Jan low is not low as per the older chart, then it could be low and we are retracing the entire move to the upside in ABC zigzag. If this scenario is correct then we still need it to correct to complete wave B zigzag. But it is not very clear.
If the second scenario then we could retest 200 zone and probably start wave C or ABC to upside which could take it much higher. Hope this helps.
Also, no offense, I have not much trading experience as novice trader, do you trade for living? With EW? And if it's I wanna to know how you know EW is a reliable tool to help you trade for living, though most people talk about it, hard evidences I wanna to know badly.