We have been following our daily time frame chart which I have been using as our Road Map and have served us well.
The larger we have been tracking is now severely stretched, so even though it has potential for completing it, the recent sideways price action seems to suggest that we might need to prepare for alternative scenario, which I outlined as possible in my live Hangout (March 2015) and you can access that recording on Youtube link - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CfFxr7sabPk
It might prove premature for this speculative move in interim trend change but serious enough that we should now contemplate it with clear invalidation level in order not to miss major profitable move nor be caught on the wrong side
After making 151 low and moving tom 305 high in 3 swing , we have been moving in what now looks like possible contracting triangle (of 3-3-3-3-3 construction). If correct we are in final stage of that concluding with possible low around 225 ideally but could spike at 220 which would be invalidation level.
If 225 - 220 holds then we could stage a possible 5 wave move which could be potentially very strong with 380- 420 as initial price target but could go lot higher.
So here is the summary:
1. Possible move from Nov 2013 high to 151 low could be complex WXY .
2. If correct then move since 151 low could be abc with 305 high making wave "a" and triangle since wave "b" near completion.
3. For this case to play out we need ideally 225 but absolute low of 220 area to hold otherwise it would be invalidated.
4. Provided the 225 -220 holds we could move in potentially strong 5 wave move.
5. Upside target of measured move could give us 380 with some other fib confluence to 420. However, potentially higher prices even in the 800 range would not be out of question and future price data will give us more clues.
No matter how high the price might reach, it is important to note that this will be only retracement bounce retracing the decline from Nov 2013 to recent 151 low not a new Cycle. Meaning that on completion we will drop to retest 151 zone or make new lower low.
I could host a live session soon to explain all this. If you are interested in this please indicate it by your comments with thumbs up and ensure you have tagged this chart for announcement of the scheduled, and register at danv-charting.dom to be notified and to obtain a link to join me.
Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most5 but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.
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Hit on 225 is not mandatory but should come close as it is approx area where triangle completes. It could stop little short or overshoot like 220.
So currently we are retracing recent minor decline. Once we turn lower then the lower end of triangle is what I am anticipating.
But once we breakout of the triangle to the upside as shown on the chart the move would likely be of very strong powerful momentum that in turn could be overcome them.
Also it won't be straight line move as 5 wave would suggest strong move with retracements and congestion along the way specially if it heads higher than 420 are.
If 220 fails then of course bearish cycle will remain in place.
Hope this helps.
But as I mentioned the Falling Wedge we have been anticipating is now very stretched and likely might not not be one. If that is correct then this idea will have higher probability.
One to watch.
Based on the triangle it needs a pullback. Otherwise something else is playing out and it could be larger bearish triangle as suggested above with the upside limited to 280.
We should have better idea with fairly soon.
Thanks for sharing your analysis.
You said it would retrace to 225, I posted my chart, I saw a retrace so deep as bearish.
Here's my updated chart:
I see a leading diagonal, clear as day, and a deep wave 2.
The first leg, might be an ABC or W and then X and this whole thing Y, but don't see this as 3 part.
Either way, trade setups are more important for me than the actual count.
However, some how at present the counts of the April low is little unclear for it to be nesting start of potentially wave 3.
Thankyou for this and will takes into account in my review.
There are no fundamental taken into account. Specially when there is no way of what has been already discounted in price and what remains, let alone knowing what factors will impact an how. All about Greece and such in my view is just speculation as individual try and justify their views of what might take place in price action.
So mine is purely on my interpretation of price pattern and EW.
The Road Map we have been following might still play out and I have posted possible bearish scenario which might unfold. However the Larger Falling wedge pattern we have been following for quite some time which commenced from Jan 2014 is very stretch in that it is now looking less likely. But there is an alternative Expanding ending diagonal I have pointed out in P&G chart few times before and I post it here for you to see the details . Even this possibility would be in doubt If the price breakout above 270 -280.
Therefore taking the above into account I have explored this interim bullish scenario but stress it is not New Bullish cycle as many might fell which could achieve new all time high, rather a retracement of the decline since Nov 2013 - 151 low. Once complete it will resume downtrend and revisit 151 of make new lower low.
Hope this makes sense.
Though there has been no real change or update to add since publishing the above chart. But I will post it here and in my chatroom when I do see the need to update.
So here is one possibility I am anticipating for now, ie a double zigzag of the of 213 (April 2015) low likely topping area of 320. If correct a retracement back to 250 zone might follow and which might give more clues of longer term price path.