DanV
Long

BTCUSD - IN POTENTIAL INTERIM TREND CHANGE (RETRACEMENT BOUNCE)

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
Please for details, my last published chart 4 ( Hr             ) 2 months ago following the spike low around 151 originally outlining possible 380- 400 upside target which then looked not likely is potential back.

We have been following our daily time frame chart which I have been using as our Road Map and have served us well.

The larger falling wedge we have been tracking is now severely stretched, so even though it has potential for completing it, the recent sideways price action seems to suggest that we might need to prepare for alternative scenario, which I outlined as possible in my live Hangout (March 2015) and you can access that recording on Youtube link - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CfFxr7sabPk

It might prove premature for this speculative move in interim trend change but serious enough that we should now contemplate it with clear invalidation level in order not to miss major profitable move nor be caught on the wrong side

After making 151 low and moving tom 305 high in 3 swing zigzag , we have been moving in what now looks like possible contracting triangle (of 3-3-3-3-3 construction). If correct we are in final stage of that concluding with possible low around 225 ideally but could spike at 220 which would be invalidation level.

If 225 - 220 holds then we could stage a possible 5 wave move which could be potentially very strong with 380- 420 as initial price target but could go lot higher.

So here is the summary:
1. Possible move from Nov 2013             high to 151 low could be complex WXY zigzag .
2. If correct then move since 151 low could be abc zigzag with 305 high making wave "a" and triangle since wave "b" near completion.
3. For this bullish case to play out we need ideally 225 but absolute low of 220 area to hold otherwise it would be invalidated.
4. Provided the 225 -220 holds we could move in potentially strong 5 wave move.
5. Upside target of AB=CD measured move could give us 380 with some other fib confluence to 420. However, potentially higher prices even in the 800 range would not be out of question and future price data will give us more clues.

Caution:
No matter how high the price might reach, it is important to note that this will be only retracement bounce retracing the decline from Nov 2013             to recent 151 low not a new Bullish Cycle. Meaning that on completion we will drop to retest 151 zone or make new lower low.

I could host a live session soon to explain all this. If you are interested in this please indicate it by your comments with thumbs up and ensure you have tagged this chart for announcement of the scheduled, and register at danv-charting.dom to be notified and to obtain a link to join me.

Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most5 but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.

For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others and follow me on my Youtube channel and Google+ . If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share for all to learn from.

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.

DanV
danv-charting.com
http://www.danv-charting.com
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChJVIJir7nymD9J3ZWoal-w/feed
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#E4bnOJSWcO1zDjBG
Daily Time Frame Chart referred to above
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The main focus it to see if the 220 -225 area holds and we get strong move developing to the upside.
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Close-up view of the triangle
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G_Man DanV
for the 380 count to play, is it a requirement for a touch of 225 zone?
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Thank you for your question.

Hit on 225 is not mandatory but should come close as it is approx area where triangle completes. It could stop little short or overshoot like 220.

So currently we are retracing recent minor decline. Once we turn lower then the lower end of triangle is what I am anticipating.
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G_Man DanV
understood, thanks
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You are welcome.
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feel good ...
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DanV MOD khoilevt
Heheh Thanks. Now look forward to confirmation and validation of the trade.
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Nice and clear analysis. Keep up the good work !
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DanV MOD MagnusTradingGroup
Thanks.
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Thanks
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DanV MOD ucdos1988
You are welcome. Thing to remember though is that nothing doing till 220-225 area.
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Hello, DanV.

Good chart! But what about daily 200MA? Normally we can use daily 200MA to identify bearish/bullish circle, if retracement bounce break daily 200MA, then would previous $210 low on Apr 14, 2015 be truncated wave 5 and bullish circle begin?
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DanV MOD PlayDefence
Good question. 200MA like any MA act as S/R and in this case has been in effect for a long time. So the scenario describe is not absolutely guaranteed. It might even hit it and pull back a little. It would only have potential of overcoming 200MS assuming we decline in minor zigzag as shown to 225 ideally and it holds. In addition on the way up there are several potential resistance levels which also will have to overcome.

But once we breakout of the triangle to the upside as shown on the chart the move would likely be of very strong powerful momentum that in turn could be overcome them.

Also it won't be straight line move as 5 wave would suggest strong move with retracements and congestion along the way specially if it heads higher than 420 are.

If 220 fails then of course bearish cycle will remain in place.

Hope this helps.
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Even on the bounce it overcomes 200MA and fails around 265 we could have the larger triangle which is still bearish and here is what I mean.
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Thank you for replies. On the other side, Momentum is the key. Help a lot, thanks so much.
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S/R?
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DanV MOD manbearpig
Sorry I don't understand your question about S/R
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wow danv has a bullish chart? :) seems like years ago ..heheh hope you right on this one.
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DanV MOD wonky_tonky
Hehehe, as it stand there is nothing to be right about or at least no risk yet. Once we get the decline to 220-225 area to complete the triangle then what happens will either confirm or invalidate it.

But as I mentioned the Falling Wedge we have been anticipating is now very stretched and likely might not not be one. If that is correct then this idea will have higher probability.

One to watch.
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Fractal repeating zoomed out, kind of sloppy but something to notice:

http://i.imgur.com/hdOdvTM.jpg
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DanV MOD alteredend
Thanks for sharing your chart.

You could be right. Sometimes these are very hard to pick specially because whilst look similar the time and magnitudes vary so much. Worth keeping an eye out for it for sure.
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I see it differently Dan.

I think we will see a rally now.
Looks impulsive to me.
Maybe C up, or 3 after nested impulse and complex 2.
The monthly looks like 1-2-3-4 pending fifth.

Check out this weekly setup:
BTCUSD: Potential rally ahead
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
I agree it looks strong. That is the reason why I have considered possible change in the interim direction. However your weekly charts would might still afford a retracement which I am suggesting to 225 before the real move would commence.

Based on the triangle it needs a pullback. Otherwise something else is playing out and it could be larger bearish triangle as suggested above with the upside limited to 280.

We should have better idea with fairly soon.

Thanks for sharing your analysis.
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Also, since this is such an illiquid market compared to FX for example, I think EW analysis might suffer...
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
That is possible.

Will review it if required by further price action. So far this bounce is unacceptable without invalidating the overall analysis.
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I see that low as a first impulse of a new rally.
Rest isn't 100% clear, so probably a huge 2, but these last moves look impulsive, nested impulses of multiple degrees.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
Very, very similar to the gold chart.
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
You could be right.

However, as per my chart that first move of the low is not 5 waves but rather 3 swing zigzag.
Similarly your wave (i) of the wave c (circled) is also 3 swing. Hard to count that as 5 waves. So for now I don't think we have larger 5 waves of the 151 low with nested counts.
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Probably impulsive C, but yeah, we'll know eventually.
I just want to trade all C's or 3-4-5's.
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
Agreed.

It is too dangerous to feel you have missed out and chase. If this is truly impulsive then we should get abc retrace or as I think reversal as per the snapshot below
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Hey Dan, how's your btc trading? I see actual chart as a bearish, similar to one or two charts that you drew here.
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I don't like to wait around. Hit play and you'll see why.
For me a drop under that green bar's low was bearish.
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
I am sorry, I am not following what you mean.
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See my chart above.

You said it would retrace to 225, I posted my chart, I saw a retrace so deep as bearish.
Here's my updated chart:

I see a leading diagonal, clear as day, and a deep wave 2.

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The first leg, might be an ABC or W and then X and this whole thing Y, but don't see this as 3 part.
Either way, trade setups are more important for me than the actual count.
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
I see what you mean. If you are correct then likely we have very significance low in place at 150 area. In that case we could be in new bullish cycle that has the potential for retest of ATH or make new higher high.

However, some how at present the counts of the April low is little unclear for it to be nesting start of potentially wave 3.

Thankyou for this and will takes into account in my review.
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Can't we have a lower corrective low, than the start of the new bullish cycle anyway?

BTCUSD: Update - Previous setup results were good, careful now


I agree with you that it's time for caution, and watching from the sidelines. If already long, partial close and/or break even stop would be wise.
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
Here is my reason for not counting that part of the move of the April low as "Leading Diagonal".
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Makes sense.
Then this being a top is more attractive.
The market profile/time at mode techniques would suggest a retracement back to 244-236.
And if crossed down a retest of the lows.
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DanV MOD IvanLabrie
Yes agree.
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hi danv? what do you say to this current move up as a developing (2) of the drop from $303 t0 $210 as (1) ?
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DanV MOD mic.kimani
Thanks for you question. That is what I had been thinking but loos very strange. I think we will end up having just a zigzag. Specially as wave 2 is very tine at present.
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I enjoy following your analysis and was intrigued by your short term bullish scenario today. Could you go into more detail on what precipitated the forecast, was there a change in fundamentals or does the crisis in Greece come into play?
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DanV MOD allegro101
Hi Thankyou for your question.

There are no fundamental taken into account. Specially when there is no way of what has been already discounted in price and what remains, let alone knowing what factors will impact an how. All about Greece and such in my view is just speculation as individual try and justify their views of what might take place in price action.

So mine is purely on my interpretation of price pattern and EW.

The Road Map we have been following might still play out and I have posted possible bearish scenario which might unfold. However the Larger Falling wedge pattern we have been following for quite some time which commenced from Jan 2014 is very stretch in that it is now looking less likely. But there is an alternative Expanding ending diagonal I have pointed out in P&G chart few times before and I post it here for you to see the details . Even this possibility would be in doubt If the price breakout above 270 -280.

Therefore taking the above into account I have explored this interim bullish scenario but stress it is not New Bullish cycle as many might fell which could achieve new all time high, rather a retracement of the decline since Nov 2013 - 151 low. Once complete it will resume downtrend and revisit 151 of make new lower low.

Hope this makes sense.
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Great work, Dan. This is plausible.
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Thanks for your compliment.
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Hi danv . I wanna ask you a question . What do you think about LTC/BTC or LTC/USD . What's our target ?
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bbrox DanV
Nice! Update would be nice as well...
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Thanks. Till we get a break on either side it will still have both possibilities but for now leaning on this bounce continuing higher.
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Thanks for the update. I typically search for your updates via chat, but it seems that search feature is gone now. Unless its somewhere new? Would love it if you updated on your page as well as chat! Love your work!
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alteredend BitcoinPsychology
HeyDan, any change with double bottom we just made and broke through middle peak? Retrace to 225 still in your opinion? Thanks!
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alteredend alteredend
225 general areaish
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DanV MOD alteredend
For a triangle a retrace is still required. May be not to 225 but 230 area or so. Will see how this retrace develop and review as necessary.
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DanV MOD BitcoinPsychology
Thanks for the compliment. Unless you follow very short term time frames there are often very little updates needed. I try to post these in the chat or in my chatroom at https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#E4bnOJSWcO1zDjBG

Though there has been no real change or update to add since publishing the above chart. But I will post it here and in my chatroom when I do see the need to update.

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Also your whaleclub feed lists the charts you post in the TV chat : https://www.whaleclub.co/posts/u/DanV
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We still have both possibilities open. ie drop to 100 area as per our Roadmap based on daily time frame and possible bullish triangle which would gain more weight if it retraces to 230 zone and bounce strongly.
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hi,DanV
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bbrox ucdos1988
Any updates Dan? $225 never happened, we are at almost $300 now...
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I would love to hear something as well ... but at the same time I suggest we should wait patiently ... updating is not just a matter of some minutes ...
Some conversation took place here at Dans Chatroom: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#E4bnOJSWcO1zDjBG
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DanV MOD little_papillon
Correct, thank you for posting your analysis on that chatroom and which I have reviewed. Though it has been hard to label these except to say the triangle failed.

So here is one possibility I am anticipating for now, ie a double zigzag of the of 213 (April 2015) low likely topping area of 320. If correct a retracement back to 250 zone might follow and which might give more clues of longer term price path.

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we will retrace ?
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