Ok, thought it would be a good idea to do another update on where i think btc is heading. My previous idea was wrong, I thought we were still in what i have named transition phases. The reason being is that i had not paid enough attention to the other transition phases since each one has been smaller by !/4. Anyway, was just a small loss since i voided the trade at 7300, but what more important is that it made me look at it closer and has brought me to the conclusion that this will be the last bearish peak, I am now quite convinced that the next peak we have will be higher.
Anyway the above is for long term anyway, this idea is about the next move.
Since we entered a 4th phase it has been quite obvious from the start that this was going to be shorter in time and not as deep although it feel like it is more agressive simple because it is doing it in faster time.
I have started to use cloned boxes to judge the length of time a phase might take and how deep it will be. If i measure the distance from the start of the drop to the top that is after the first low after the drop it appears to drop exactlyish the same distance again from the second top to the bottom of the phase. The only difficult part is working out what is the first real bottom and the top that comes after. Also the distance from those two points is 1 third of the length of time it has been taking to get from one top to the next top.
Anyway all in all, i think we should not go much lower than 5850BITFINEX:BTCUSD
I find it quite interesting that the post was actually for a trade down to 5850 yet the comment left seem to be as if i had posted my idea for a long trade. The price only reached 5855 and not the 5850 i had predicted, so i was actually 5usd too bearish in TA haha....but if i could get it that close each trade i'd be a happy man. The way i am trying to develop my own method of TA and read things from a completely different starting point than any other traditional accepted ,methods of TA means that i do not look at the fundamentals of any market at all, doing so would add too much chance, too much potential for luck good or bad, too many variables. Taking in to account fundamentals long and short term would not let me know if the pure TA was on the correct lines or not, the results would be so variable that it would leave me with no confidence in what i am doing and most likely abandoning it. After I TA my way i wil then start to enhance it with other traditional methods. But i cant find a place for fundamentals. But you are right we are very unlikely to see crypto do what crypto did to the degree it did it again. Look to the new big thing if you wanna get on one of those rockets is my advice to anyone....also dont think btc will make you rich quick, it wont, it can make you poor quick tho, treat like your trading anything else, forex, gold whatever. Although the alts still provide plenty of volatility if you have your edge that makes one profitable.
I do admit i sm probably only break even to maybe 60-40 profit trader - still make many rookie errors which i am eliminating quite well now, so i arent pretending i know all coz i dont and wil get things wrong. Actually as a trader my errors are normally related to Too early entry, getting the TA right but not letting the price get to its ideal entry point for fear of missing out, and second, money management. Way better than i used to be but those 2 things are pretyty much where all the 50% or 40% would go, TA side, direction, targets and often the length of time are probably stronger than 90% of traders. So anyone reading this thats a newb then you will learn this one of two ways, the expensive way, or the cheap way from someone that learnt it the expensive way.
2 Points that will keep you r losses small enough to cope with (you willl be a trader making losses if you are newb so thats fine) 1`, Leverage is your worst enemy. If you new 100% new then you should not use any leverage at all apart from x1 to short the market. A Very good trader would probably not be comfortable using x10 leverage. So your golden rule before you even start should be never use leverage over x5 and even the too high for new trader. You will be loss making trader, so why would you like to times your losses x5? Or worse by x100 haha. Dont waste thousands on learning this the difficult way. and second main point is. Never ever go all in on anything, always leave yourself with somewhere to go.
Dino27
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Just a short point, the retails crazy period has come and gone and left many burnt fingers. And whilsts Blockchain is revelotionary and exciting, its use case is still in it infancancy. I have no doubt of its impending success, or even revelotion. However until its use case is justified, BTC can only recover enough, to turn the downward spiral with a change nessesity.
Im a tech guy, although from a different background and read many of the whitepapers. Many of them were exciting and have their chance to succeed, however the use case of the tokens was often limited, or n/a. Without a demand for a token there will be no 'bull run', or indeed desire to come back to btc.
All that remains are the big boys, who have been cleverly accumalating for not just this calander year, When/if it succeeds, the ideal of the open free idea of crypto currencies, not from regulations but from the few owning the majority. These players will be powerful, and measured with the signidicance of the crypto eco-system. Unfortuantly crypto feels like a bad place at the moment.
There is always a candle however, as the future brings unknowns. I have faith in that unknow.
Im longing from 4800-5100. Dont forget that liquidity pool that could trigger a lot of SL's. Then again, what would some do to defend them. Not long now until we find out.
chris-abc
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@Dino27, Also to let you know, i have changed my opinion on 5850 being the bottom. I actually think we are now heading for 4800 -5200 price range....i know it looks bullish right now and lots think that its now done. I see it differently and see us in what would possibly be the final bearish phase, but iy will be one heck of a drop in my opinion, we actually entered it at 7400 area and within each phase there are 3 smaller phases normally, we are only bullish as we are on back end of sub phase 1, sub phase 2 will be mega drop, and sub phase 3 will likely be same drop as 1 and 2 put togthers. But i couls be wrong i guess.
Dino27
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@chris-abc, Glad we're on the same page. Excuse my poor English in the prior post, i was typing with one eye shut and a glass of whiskey in one hand.
Im strength of understanding of the cycle and progress of Crypto is fairly clear. I put a lot of emphasis on real world case, which is coming (see XLM or even TRX), but the store of digital wealth in Bitcoin and the empending ETF's will be enough for FI's to look to make profit on both, mid-term and long-term.
Ive learnt a very valuable lesson of late, and its often to do the opposite of the masses. The drive to this is liquidity! There's a lot of shorts going on here, and i do suspect that an unexpected pump to create liquidity to dump into their longs is on the cards.
I hold my 5100-4800 strongly, there's confluence running through that range. Happy to discuss in more details...
chris-abc
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@Dino27, Yeah i agree their is confluence their and it does seem to be the popular destination of most bearish leaning people. However, although i have my most likely TA scenario's popping up in the range just below, it now has quite some challenges to overcome to get down there, but not as many as it does to go up. This i conclude not using my phase TA but just the MA lines. As you can see we bouncing off the 10 hour one but we are actualy through above on most of theothr intervals. So we would have to break through those again to go down but only really one of the two lines is to break to go all the way up to 7400 again and if that ther was broken i think we could really actually properly with some evidence rather than just speculation the the marker has direction,m thwe markert hast really had any proper direction since april, we have just bouced around an ever narrowing range. However if we do break down then ib would ultimately expect the end stop being 3200. Kinda makes me chucklw as i remember when we left 3000 i said to some one i thought we would be back down to re test. I shoudl find that person again and say "see i told you" hahaha
Dino27
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@chris-abc, The market has been playing out a very specific and defined trend of the 618 Fib of the previous move up. I dont know how to post charts, im not into that so ive used imgur.com/AwotVf1
Im playing trades as above link, apart from the higher low seen on the weekly for the first time since Xmas. Now does that mean the FI's are going to drive us up from here, or are we going to get the lqiduidty below 5700 i dont know. Im playing trades on swings and judging things as they come.
Im still expecting that fib at 4891 to want to be touched. Now every trader might well be waiting for that, so they dont lets us have it.
I have solid TA below 4800, but i think Crypto dies if we see below 4400. Some of my best trading pals would lose confidence and move back to FX. And as for retails, if they took another loss buying in at 5xxx to see 3800, that would be the end of them too.
They want to shake retails pockets, but they dont want to beat up so they dont walk again
Dino27
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@Dino27, I should add that i didnt engage on your MA theroy, because i havent become skilled enough to use them properly. I only use MA crosses as i expect algo's to run with them. I havent grasped the idea of a candle touching an MA.
The more people or algos that trade a single idea, the more importance it has. I dont know how many people use different which MA, or how an algo can read a candle touching an MA line. Yes i can see how an MA line crossing the close price of a chandle which is different.
Im quite the fan of an OrderBlock coupled with swing high/low SR's, FIBs, price action with a sprinkle of RSI and MACD.
chris-abc
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Which is the reason i am so interested in the way of natures effect on charts. Nature always will find the most effective way of doing things this is why the fib sequence appears in so many things, nature will have found that the sequence will be the most effective way to reproduce, or the best way a plants leaves can absorb the maximum amount of sunlight in the time given, or how trees branches fork from one another to provide the most effective way of capturing sunlight. Some things i think are probably just coincidence but for sure the numbers are of major importance, so i thought if they work so well, lets see what else can be found from our big blue planet and beyond that can help predict the [ath. I also worked out some things that relate to market crashes and the planets in our solar system.....sure i may have just found something to fit i guess. But if the next market crash is in just short of 2 years from now at around 45,000usd then hell it may well be something else thats just out of this world litrally
dRends35
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Thanks for the post. I like to see all the views. I would say that i disagree mostly. Bitcoin has been entirely corrective so far this year, and there has still been nothing to suggest a bullish move. Each 'bullish' has had no significant impulse to escape correction and so far each oscillation has peaked at 0.618 fib. More likely $5800 will be tested and breached forming a new yearly low. Then perhaps a small relief rally will ensue, many will call the bottom yet again, and round the mulberry bush Bitcoin will go once more. Alts are bleeding out, Crypto market cap is approaching 200bn. If any rockets are taking off, it seems more likely they'll go down, not up.
chris-abc
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@dRends35, Thank you for your comment and your educated view. I am aware that most people are bearish right now, but i am coming at this from a different angle and not looking at fundamentals or anything like that. I am working on time, nature and multiple time intervals tick the next time interval above to the next phase. I have the next phase being very mildly bullish. In fact the end of the bear phase is bullish, however the start of the bullish phase is bearish. You wil get what i mean if you look at the curves i draw that i call phases. Each one is made up of 3 (occasionally 4) smaller phases that belong to the interval below. This can be done all the way down the intervals all the way to 5 min. So yeah i have ditched the traditional type of trading and creating my own so i will come up with very different ideas to what other wil do.
I may well be wrong here, and i do value your feedback and your views, we will soon be seeing if i am completely out here i guess.
I do admit i sm probably only break even to maybe 60-40 profit trader - still make many rookie errors which i am eliminating quite well now, so i arent pretending i know all coz i dont and wil get things wrong. Actually as a trader my errors are normally related to Too early entry, getting the TA right but not letting the price get to its ideal entry point for fear of missing out, and second, money management. Way better than i used to be but those 2 things are pretyty much where all the 50% or 40% would go, TA side, direction, targets and often the length of time are probably stronger than 90% of traders. So anyone reading this thats a newb then you will learn this one of two ways, the expensive way, or the cheap way from someone that learnt it the expensive way.
2 Points that will keep you r losses small enough to cope with (you willl be a trader making losses if you are newb so thats fine) 1`, Leverage is your worst enemy. If you new 100% new then you should not use any leverage at all apart from x1 to short the market. A Very good trader would probably not be comfortable using x10 leverage. So your golden rule before you even start should be never use leverage over x5 and even the too high for new trader. You will be loss making trader, so why would you like to times your losses x5? Or worse by x100 haha. Dont waste thousands on learning this the difficult way. and second main point is. Never ever go all in on anything, always leave yourself with somewhere to go.