BTC - Analysis Below Prior Highs - New ATH's???

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
*The charts are on a logarithmic scale*

Bitcoin has had some very strong price action of late (clearing both of my prior price targets i'll say too), and as my prior BTC piece noted alllll the way back in May that after the $14,000 target was breached we would more than likely see a period of FOMO to prior highs...

...We may very well be seeing the beginnings of that now, as we are currently sitting just below the 90% retracement, which i understand is not a traditional fib number, but i recommend you add it to your repertoire as it is quite useful, but i digress.

With prior ATH's only a mere 26% away (around $4500), it will likely be reached quite soon

I see three possible scenarios once BTC reaches the prior highs

1) 'What resistance?' - price blows through and buying begets more buying before a major pullback occurs (LESS FAVORABLE OPTION)

2) Minor selloff - followed by breakout higher (PREFERRED OPTION)

3) Major selloff - followed by consolidation (POSSIBLE, BUT LESS LIKELY)

The first reason that i expect to see at least SOME selling is the fact that there are undoubtedly people who bought into the 2017/2018 mania who simply wish to be done with crypto (they will call this a suckers rally), but at this point with major institutions like JPM bringing their own crypto products to market and many high profile investors giving glowing praise for BTC , i do believe these to be in the minority of crypto holders at this point.

The second reason is the influx of new traders who have entered the space, from lower prices, will use this as a point to potentially take profits, BUT other traders will very likely use a breakout to new highs as a signal to enter NEW positions also, this then becomes a case of supply and demand at work.

On the shorter timeframe we can see that BTC is quite extended, however it is also doing a good job of holding these gains, should BTC fail to hold these gains (from sideways price action) i expect that a move to $14,000-$13,500 is not off the table.

Overall i expect that BTC will continue to drift higher, potentially to the 90% retracement at $16,360 at which point i would LIKE to see some consolidation or a minor pullback (remember that intermittent and minor corrections are preferred to singular and major crashes).

Finally i will remind readers that the monthly (and fortnightly) squeezes in the altcoin market are nothing but bullish for the overall space, the fact that BTC DOES NOT have similar patterns present suggests that a period of out performance for the altcoin market is more than likely to follow, this also lends credence to the idea of a pullback/ consolidation in BTC around or just above/ below prior highs.


P.S. i strongly suggest you read my prior piece on BTC as it laid out quite a nice path for how we got to this point


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