I've stared at a good amount of charts and tape, and between all the exchanges, something doesn't feel right. This isn't Christmas on the S&P here. We're testing critical levels on both sides but seeing extremely low market participation. Huge orders accounting for light daily volumes is not your average Dick and Harry accepting BTC value at $970.
It appears we are experiencing major market making activity. It may only be this visible because of the low . After ramping above $1000, we've seen modest weekly distributions of 400K takes us down in excess of $400. Can you imagine what a 800K distribution would do, or something even more extreme in the range? BTC used to do that on tight spreads. That pattern would not repeat today.
A pattern likely to repeat, and one that appears due, is some high on the all time range. We haven't even sniffed at these levels for over 6 months. After a major bull move, you'd expect heavy distribution volumes even more. Those strong hands are watching, and they are strong with ACBs closer to 10 and 100 than 1000. Remember, where were we one year ago folks? Have we seen any non-spec buying above 500 to this point?
I wouldn't bet against BTC (until it's confirmed), but my bias is given this analysis. I won't pretend to know what is coming, but I'll be hopping on it either way when the broader market returns.
I agree with your last statement not doing any further trading until market sentiment is established.