Well BTC dramatically broke down to 25K but since then has done the same as end of November and formed a large lower wicked candle and BTC has bounced back to 30K area.
And have you noticed so many on TV now think the bottom is in?
Sure the early bird gets the worm but little birdy might also get crushed by a train.
Anyhow, this whole area since December 2020 I think can be seen to be a top, a distribution pattern through the lens of Wyckoff.
And if it is (and it is an "if") then currently BTC has just formed a shakeout reversal (lower wicked candle) through SOW, to form SOW in D.
And if that is correct then it means that after 1.5 years of distribution BTC enters Mark Down for X amount of time.
Whether or not this Wyckoff realisation means that there will be an extended bear market into "Mark Down," or whether that perspective is incorrect and in fact BTC is coming to the end of its correction now I dont know of course, and will need to see more chart.
The parallel channel I've drawn appears to be a flag and I wont clutter the page with EW but as drawn before the ATH collapse down to January low was clearly a 3 wave move. From there is the flag and because this is a longer 4 month correction it is probably a higher degree correction and so there should be symmetry to the downside.
And now we have had 1 impulse down and so there should be a smaller correction followed by another impulsive wave down which as I showed before is a 1:1 - 23K. But considering potential wave 1 has already hit 25K, then it looks like this trend may overextend quite a lot and go sub 20K.
Assuming any of this happens this will take BTC below the 200WMA which everyone "knows" is always BTC bottom and so for that reason there is a good chance a shakeout reversal to the upside will form there. Thats my guess. Another very long lower wicked candle piercing down into 20K area and possibly lower through the 200WMA perhaps lower enough to really freak people out before having a big bounce.
See you @ 20K.
Not advice.
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It was always this weekly chart distribution schematic. Simple and easy. Wyckoff rocks.
burakb
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@burakb, an UTAD is technically possible but increasing interest rates does not favor an UTAD
sasquatron
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Gotta hand it to you, your analysis has been spot on. Nice work.
bkprofits
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@sasquatron, People were upset back in 2021 when @dRends35 was calling sub 20k. Granted, it did take a bit of time for BTC to tank but that's the entire industry. It's always volatile in between to squeeze weak hands. That's why looking at the big picture is vital.
solemnCheetah8002
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I very much appreciate that (1) you share your ideas and (2) you are willing to be as specific as the charts will support. Thanks much!!
suleygulasi94
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Love your work buddy. Do you see any kind of a rally to mid 30s before the next leg down?
dRends35
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@suleygulasi94, Yes there may be a lot of short covering at 200WMA that may trigger a rally. How high it goes is very hard to tell - its crypto its wild.
CrashWhen
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Bitcoin is the hardest money ever created. Doesn't get more valuable than a chicken egg farm in Venezuela. Bitcoin --> $666,666 soon
dRends35
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@CrashWhen It already hit 66k. You Santa kids always want more…