MarcPMarkets

BTCUSD: 6K Psychological Support Means Higher Low More Likely.

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
BTCUSD update: Small retrace back into the 6K psychological support. The 6350 area is now a lower high, but if this market was going to sell hard, the bearish candle should have been larger. Instead, price stops at the major support which hints at a higher low.

What I find most interesting is how the negative sentiment is at an extreme (judging by all the bearish talk), while a giant pin bar has printed on a major support level .

What many do not realize is, if this is a short term bottom, it is not going to retrace in a straight line. Bottoming is a process and what price appears to be doing at the moment is retesting the 6K psychological support. If it holds again, a higher low formation will be established.

Keep in mind price has been in a high probability reversal area for days. The process is slow, but once the structure materializes, it often just needs a spark. A news item of some kind that catches everyone off guard, especially the shorts.

Often in a high probability area, order flow expresses itself in ways that indicate some kind of accumulation is taking place. A higher low is one structural example of this process, and is especially relevant in situations like we have on this chart.

In summary, I have been writing about looking beyond the charts in a situation like this. The location and recent structures are all pointing to a greater possibility of reversal but it is not obvious which is why the opportunity still exists.

Price can even retest the 5669 reversal zone boundary and as long as it holds, this market is more likely to reverse than break below this entire support zone at 4983. Of course anything can happen, and an open mind must always be maintained, but at S.C. we bet on probabilities more than anything else. And there are just too many bullish signs in this situation to ignore. Over on S.C. make sure to follow our swing trade updates for this market.
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Comments

Hey Marc. the recent drop came within an hour of this news.

So I was able to predict this drop AND I even predicted ETHER would bounce at 425 again. It's holding just above that trend support, but I don't think it will hold.

When you read this news I think you see how serious it is..

https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-btc-price-suppressed-hedge-fund-redemption-says-blockchain-capital-partner/

Summary: In the summer of 2017, about 200+ new crypto hedge funds were formed. As of July 2018, these investors will all be free to sell.
The investors also know they are down 50%. Forced selling en masse is probably coming our way, folks.


+4 Reply
Altcoinsmart TradeClass
@TradeClass, Good read man , i don't know why he wrote this especially this market doesn't show you the bottoming process like other market. it either goes down or shoots back up.
+1 Reply
dwk8081 TradeClass
@TradeClass, After 190 days of declines my hunch would be that we are closer to the end of the rout than the beginning. HODL HODL
+2 Reply
Cryptopile TradeClass
@TradeClass, thanks. Enjoy your posts and ideas. A different perspective.
+1 Reply
heisginger TradeClass
@TradeClass, this is just fud IMHO. If you've used a hedge fund to set up your investment, and were happy to have it locked away for year, I'd say you're the type of investor that smells proximity to the bottom. Why would you now decide to swap investment strategies and sell everything? Yes, there are those that say $800 before we turn, but we all know exchanges and miners are starting to hit critical levels for their own profitability. Not a big news piece either.
Reply
TradeClass heisginger
@heisginger, Everyone is entitled to an opinion.. LOL I never said that this was FUD or wasn't FUD. Regardless, FUD can lead to real effects on the market. Within an hour of this news announcement, the price dropped. Not only did I predict this.. and readied myself on the EXACT price on where I thought it would stop.. when it DID stop there... I was almost surprised by how accurate my play turned out. So, in a market with weak volume such as this one... many small events can cause big price movement.

As far as the psychology of person who bought into a hedge fund.. are you a psychologist? Because that is my degree and I am also a marketing pro. And still even I cannot predict what these people might do. However.. using the statistical law of 20/80.. I might theorize that the tens of thousands of people who will be exiting their contract over the next 90 days will see they are down 50%.. and because they are 'net' POSITIVE.. will have pressure to sell to reduce more losses and take some gains. Then maybe sit and wait for the market to finally bottom before getting back in.

Unless you are a person who has big money lying around... it's hard to put yourself in those person's shoes. Mind you, I am around those people all day long... and I think I have a handle on their thinking. But this market is unpredictable and who knows, maybe some crazy good news will surface that counteracts the negative ones.
Reply
heisginger TradeClass
@TradeClass, fair points, but I respectfully disagree with linking sharp market moves with very minor news pieces that get very little coverage. When an exchange gets hacked, it's a bigger deal and worth paying attn to. Well folks with coin on those exchanges are gonna panic. I've been there. Those kinds of news pieces have a local and to some extent global effect for a limited time. But I just don't see the causality here. A minor crypto personality who speaks in modal verbs about an opinion he's dreamt up is not gonna move a market IMO.
Reply
TradeClass heisginger
@heisginger, I think you missed the point. I PREDICTED a price movement based on news and it came to pass. If do this all the time. Believe what you want, but I have noticed Hies that you argue a lot and you give no one breathing room who disagrees with you. I ask that you stop making comments on mine, I will also avoid yours.
Reply
heisginger TradeClass
@TradeClass, I didn't miss the point, I disagreed with it. Anyone can think the news drives the market, but you're on a TA site and most would agree that isn't the case. We're also dealing with a highly manipulated market. As to posting comments on others, your here on Marc's page and routinely do that, so I think I'm also allowed to express whatever views I see fit to.
Reply
TradeClass heisginger
@heisginger, Okay. I think you said it all. Clearly no one else's opinion matters but your own, because you are always right. You seem to know what everyone is thinking on Tradingview and I am guessing that you believe TA is always right. This coming from someone with three followers and a low reputation. I asked you to stop interacting with my comments, mostly for the sake of room harmony. A good person would say, okay. Let's do that.

If you continue addressing my comments I will tell the room I already asked you to leave me alone. I will use logic that targets your credibility in front of the public, I am good at doing that. Is this what you want?
Reply
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