What I find most interesting is how the negative sentiment is at an extreme (judging by all the talk), while a giant has printed on a major .
What many do not realize is, if this is a short term bottom, it is not going to retrace in a straight line. Bottoming is a process and what price appears to be doing at the moment is retesting the 6K psychological support. If it holds again, a higher low formation will be established.
Keep in mind price has been in a high probability reversal area for days. The process is slow, but once the structure materializes, it often just needs a spark. A news item of some kind that catches everyone off guard, especially the shorts.
Often in a high probability area, order flow expresses itself in ways that indicate some kind of accumulation is taking place. A higher low is one structural example of this process, and is especially relevant in situations like we have on this chart.
In summary, I have been writing about looking beyond the charts in a situation like this. The location and recent structures are all pointing to a greater possibility of reversal but it is not obvious which is why the opportunity still exists.
Price can even retest the 5669 reversal zone boundary and as long as it holds, this market is more likely to reverse than break below this entire at 4983. Of course anything can happen, and an open mind must always be maintained, but at S.C. we bet on probabilities more than anything else. And there are just too many signs in this situation to ignore. Over on S.C. make sure to follow our swing trade updates for this market.
So I was able to predict this drop AND I even predicted ETHER would bounce at 425 again. It's holding just above that trend support, but I don't think it will hold.
When you read this news I think you see how serious it is..
Summary: In the summer of 2017, about 200+ new crypto hedge funds were formed. As of July 2018, these investors will all be free to sell.
The investors also know they are down 50%. Forced selling en masse is probably coming our way, folks.
As far as the psychology of person who bought into a hedge fund.. are you a psychologist? Because that is my degree and I am also a marketing pro. And still even I cannot predict what these people might do. However.. using the statistical law of 20/80.. I might theorize that the tens of thousands of people who will be exiting their contract over the next 90 days will see they are down 50%.. and because they are 'net' POSITIVE.. will have pressure to sell to reduce more losses and take some gains. Then maybe sit and wait for the market to finally bottom before getting back in.
Unless you are a person who has big money lying around... it's hard to put yourself in those person's shoes. Mind you, I am around those people all day long... and I think I have a handle on their thinking. But this market is unpredictable and who knows, maybe some crazy good news will surface that counteracts the negative ones.
If you continue addressing my comments I will tell the room I already asked you to leave me alone. I will use logic that targets your credibility in front of the public, I am good at doing that. Is this what you want?