So since peaking at nearly $14K about two months ago bitcoin has been stuck in a consolidation phase, ranging from over $13K down to just over $9K. There were a couple times where bitcoin looked like it might be ready to breakout to new 2019 highs only to fail and drop lower again. My feeling is that bitcoin is slowly working it's way down to the yellow weekly 21 EMA, especially now that the 4 hour death cross has been confirmed earlier today (50 EMA & 200EMA).
If you go back and study the 2016 - 2017 bull market you will find several examples where bitcoin after making a nice run higher would pull back into the weekly 21 EMA before moving higher again. As I said I believe this is what we will see again although if it does I don't feel like bitcoin is just going to shoot higher again, instead I feel like it will continue to be a slow grind higher.
Now, I want to also say that just because I feel this is very possible it is obviously not a guarantee. It is also possible that the bulls will regroup and push bitcoin higher before hitting the weekly 21 EMA. Another possibility is that bitcoin will continue to pull back but the weekly 21 EMA will fail to provide support and bitcoin will just keep on falling. If this happens and bitcoin drops too far (sub $7K or even sub $6K) IMO this will damage the bullish structure that bitcoin has built since the beginning of the year. I believe we would then see another prolonged period of consolidation before the bulls can recover and start another push higher.
As long as bitcoin remains above the weekly 21 EMA I will remain bullish overall. If bitcoin does drop significantly below the weekly 21 EMA I will then become short and medium term bearish although I will still remain long term bullish (years).
If you go back and study the 2016 - 2017 bull market you will find several examples where bitcoin after making a nice run higher would pull back into the weekly 21 EMA before moving higher again. As I said I believe this is what we will see again although if it does I don't feel like bitcoin is just going to shoot higher again, instead I feel like it will continue to be a slow grind higher.
Now, I want to also say that just because I feel this is very possible it is obviously not a guarantee. It is also possible that the bulls will regroup and push bitcoin higher before hitting the weekly 21 EMA. Another possibility is that bitcoin will continue to pull back but the weekly 21 EMA will fail to provide support and bitcoin will just keep on falling. If this happens and bitcoin drops too far (sub $7K or even sub $6K) IMO this will damage the bullish structure that bitcoin has built since the beginning of the year. I believe we would then see another prolonged period of consolidation before the bulls can recover and start another push higher.
As long as bitcoin remains above the weekly 21 EMA I will remain bullish overall. If bitcoin does drop significantly below the weekly 21 EMA I will then become short and medium term bearish although I will still remain long term bullish (years).