What you think about price movement? Long or Short?
vx5ma5NCCk2GPrzpy
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@nesci0, long for sure! Maybe short if you like day trading, but the long-term risk:reward is higher for longs at this stage. Respecting the trend is important, but the potential to change is near. Of course volatility is suppressed at this stage so it can be easy to "dig a hole" at one price, so to speak. It's too dangerous to short now for my personal taste. Better long now, and short when the price looks like it was in December 2017 :)
I like this fractal, Thank you, it's really interesting.
I agree that long term (1Y) seems long, but after all that have happened, are you sure we can expect to have fractals on BTC? I rephrase that, with all the good/bad news affecting the price so much, all the governments and high financial institution voting against BlockChain, all price manipulation through OTC markets etc., are you sure that same fractal as the accumulation for DEC2017 will happen?
I believe in the technology and theory behind it but, as a fundamentalist, i am a bit scared on being in scenario that BTC's goes near 0 rather than thinking in another bull race.
Thanks!
vx5ma5NCCk2GPrzpy
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@BeniGo, thanks! I think it's important to note that this fractal hasn't just happened once or twice but maybe 3 or 4 times. Each time, the rise is parabolic. The S&P 500 is also a parabolic trend which perplexes a lot of people. I think it's important to note that the BTC/USD price is not simply a measure of BTC price at all, but in fact the measure in decline of interest in fiat vs Bitcoin. You can also see this relationship in the S&P. That is to say, because it creates a better fundamental speculative vehicle of investment, the money is fundamentally attracted there. But Bitcoin isn't an index, like the S&P, but instead a currency. So where the S&P served as a petri dish within the ecosystem of ETF markets, Bitcoin will create a petri dish in the ecosystem of currency markets. This is very different, because stocks use a currency as a base; they are secondary markets. Other ETFs can use something else as a basis. Bitcoin is a primary market because it deals against the currencies themselves.
Perhaps there are a lot of other more infuriating reasons for the rise of BTC/crypto, but I won't make a cause/effect correlation simply because "banks are greedy" or some nonsense reason. One view I have is that Bitcoin is fundamentally better as a short-term speculative vehicle, as well as a long-term investment (something fiat can never offer, because of fractional-reserve debt overhead). There's only about 19% left of the Bitcoin supply to be mined, forever. The M0 money supply (what used to be the circulating supply) went up from ~0.8 trillion to 4 trillion in 2008. Now, they can't possibly even print a trillion of that unless we have bigger bills, so we won't see the discourse of this effect for a while. And the banks and the FED can say whatever they want, but that's 500% inflation directly into -our- money supply, not M1, M2, M3, M4. During the past 30 years, the spending power of USD goes down about 5% every year, on average, and it will probably get much worse. What used to have good market value as a good short-term currency an mediocre long-term currency (compared to the other fiat currencies) will be gone. In other words, if you flip the chart, you get the real value of your dollars. There is no "price of Bitcoin". The price depends on which national currency you are looking at it against. So in that sense, this chart depicts the market value of national currency trending towards 0.