I show, that no matter which pivot you choose for wave (4) for BTC, a pitchfork analysis shows, that a BTC wave (5) final top range of $72k to $83k top is very plausible. So why the $72k to $83k range? These numbers have some interesting confluences. I'm not a fortune teller, all I'm saying is sleep with one eye open for this low BTC target price (compared to other predictions) for the top.
CONFLUENCES
The historical curve trend of BLX on log graph can easily give a top anywhere from $72k to $100k, depending on how you draw it.
$72k is 4.236 fib of the 2017-2018 bullrun high
$83k would be the top if you compare the 2011-2013 fractal to the 2015 low-2021 high range.
The left side of the above chart shows, that if to use BTC $28k as the wave (4) pivot, then a pitchfork easily gives this range as a top. And the last subwave 5 with a 4.618 would get to $72k for wave (5) , matching with my point [2} above.
The right side of the above chart shows, that if to use the truncated pivot as the wave (4) instead of the $28k wick, then a final wave (5) can still top out in the range. In such a case, with fibonaccis of $77k (0.618) to $86k (1.0).
//// And as a final note. In 2017-2018 bull run, everyone was convinced the bull market was in force not realizing BTC had in fact topped. Many altcoins topped at the same time, while many exploded AFTER BTC topped for about a month. So, couldn't a $72k-$83k BTC top set up a similar bullish fervor, since so many are convinced that BTC is going to $100k to $250k. Especially with so many holding to a 4-year cycle theory linear extrapolation ($250k), plus the ETF news?
If you have much higher BTC price targets, just keep an eye on this $72k to $83k range. That's all I'm saying. There will be many other signs when the top occurs, so don't ignore them.
CONFLUENCES
The historical curve trend of BLX on log graph can easily give a top anywhere from $72k to $100k, depending on how you draw it.
$83k would be the top if you compare the 2011-2013 fractal to the 2015 low-2021 high range.
The right side of the above chart shows, that if to use the truncated pivot as the wave (4) instead of the $28k wick, then a final wave (5) can still top out in the range. In such a case, with fibonaccis of $77k (0.618) to $86k (1.0).
//// And as a final note. In 2017-2018 bull run, everyone was convinced the bull market was in force not realizing BTC had in fact topped. Many altcoins topped at the same time, while many exploded AFTER BTC topped for about a month. So, couldn't a $72k-$83k BTC top set up a similar bullish fervor, since so many are convinced that BTC is going to $100k to $250k. Especially with so many holding to a 4-year cycle theory linear extrapolation ($250k), plus the ETF news?
If you have much higher BTC price targets, just keep an eye on this $72k to $83k range. That's all I'm saying. There will be many other signs when the top occurs, so don't ignore them.