BTC still long, I'll show you what "they" did...
These types of scenarios are exactly why an ETF for Bitcoin and crypto is unlikely. What I'll show you here will make it superbly obvious what they've done, and why it's manipulated. So we will take the current retrace from 10300, to around 7400 as prime example.
In previous ideas I have shown you my take on the fact that the retrace down from the up-swing of 3200-14k ended at 7300 (October low).
That same Fib-Time showed an explosion upwards, making it seem 10300 was the retrace of the downward move. It was not... Simply because it wasn't in the correct Fib-Time zone. We need at least 0.382 to generally complete a retracement, sometimes it takes longer.
I expect a retrace of the downward move to the following zone:
So institutional investors and some retail investors are likely seeing the same thing. They've likely been in a long position since around 7300 price zone, even 8k zone from October. Most recognized that 10300 was not the full retrace and stayed in a long position.
Now, TYPICALLY... We see most retracements at around 61.8%... So follow me down the rabbit hole.
They pull prices down hard, panicking longs but STILL keeping Elliot Wave structure into technically not being broken below 1:1 retrace of the low from 7300...
As I said, the 0.786 retrace in MOST typical markets that are not so manipulated, would have likely been the end of the current retracement. The exchanges push the retracement to it's absolute maximum before springing prices back up, panicking longs and trapping shorts before a huge impulse up.
Our current situation is that BOTH downtrends from 14k to 7300 AND 10300 to our local low here of 7400 have converged... Meaning both will likely retrace AT THE SAME TIME, instead of having trends retrace within trends, which is VERY unusual and screams manipulative price tactics from exchanges.
My expectation is a retrace to the 9400 region by the end of the month, and a full retrace to around 12k at some point. This is based on the new price action that we have just been through. These should be very sharp impulsive moves up.
****IF**** By any chance we break below the October low of 7300 - This is FULLY invalidated because a new Elliot Wave structure would emerge. However, at this time, I still do NOT think it's likely. If we fall below that, I will be closing my longs and re-assessing the price structure.
In previous ideas I have shown you my take on the fact that the retrace down from the up-swing of 3200-14k ended at 7300 (October low).
That same Fib-Time showed an explosion upwards, making it seem 10300 was the retrace of the downward move. It was not... Simply because it wasn't in the correct Fib-Time zone. We need at least 0.382 to generally complete a retracement, sometimes it takes longer.
I expect a retrace of the downward move to the following zone:
So institutional investors and some retail investors are likely seeing the same thing. They've likely been in a long position since around 7300 price zone, even 8k zone from October. Most recognized that 10300 was not the full retrace and stayed in a long position.
Now, TYPICALLY... We see most retracements at around 61.8%... So follow me down the rabbit hole.
They pull prices down hard, panicking longs but STILL keeping Elliot Wave structure into technically not being broken below 1:1 retrace of the low from 7300...
As I said, the 0.786 retrace in MOST typical markets that are not so manipulated, would have likely been the end of the current retracement. The exchanges push the retracement to it's absolute maximum before springing prices back up, panicking longs and trapping shorts before a huge impulse up.
Our current situation is that BOTH downtrends from 14k to 7300 AND 10300 to our local low here of 7400 have converged... Meaning both will likely retrace AT THE SAME TIME, instead of having trends retrace within trends, which is VERY unusual and screams manipulative price tactics from exchanges.
My expectation is a retrace to the 9400 region by the end of the month, and a full retrace to around 12k at some point. This is based on the new price action that we have just been through. These should be very sharp impulsive moves up.
****IF**** By any chance we break below the October low of 7300 - This is FULLY invalidated because a new Elliot Wave structure would emerge. However, at this time, I still do NOT think it's likely. If we fall below that, I will be closing my longs and re-assessing the price structure.
Comment:
One more scenario to consider:
This would also make sense as the retrace would be fully completed from 14k to 7300 at perfectly at the 0.618 fib-time zone...
Looking something like this: