In my last post I talked about the final fight take place in the 4 hours candle at exactly 2018-04-20 20:00 UGT time, and the importance of that candle. Finally it happened that the bulls took control over the situation and left bears and shorters burned. Well we got a beautiful $8940 and just now the price has broken it to 9010 without any fomo at all. There is a couple of important facts to consider of why the volume looks terrible and why the price is not making $100 up per minute:
1. The price has broken the kumo (cloud) in the thinest part. A thin kumo means no volume, easy to break and even more easy to reverse the price below it. 2. Right to the end of the green kumo (possible reverse trend) there is a beautiful shaped bear kumo with a considerable downtrend. In my opinion the price wont ignore it.
We just have made a new high at 9010 and back to 8950. Have you seen the price going back any time that a new high has been broken? You don´t often see it, here is different. When the price breaks a nice fat kumo in a daily or 4 hours chart, the price rapidly moon, like LTC breaking the kumo in the 4 hours chart.
Right now we just breakout from the biggest downtrend line, and we supposed to have heavy volatility, even more now because we have broken the 1 day chart kumo, which should be a very bullish sign to enter the market, but there is no new money entering, weird isn´t it? Also the 4 hour chart is showing a big hole in supports, which suggest a good price retracement, and together with the other aspects that I explained, brings an idea that we could see a very cool price reversal starting in 1-2 days.
However, this is not an exact science so things could change suddenly before you noticed. The price is facing the last high at 9165, which will be tough to break it, but if we do it and price reaches levels around 9250, I will abandon any bear idea so far and I´ll heavy load my long positions.
Here is another screenshot of how the 4 hour chart looks in ichimoku. In fact, my take is that the price will start going down in no more than 8 hours, let´s see!
Trade safe folks!
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The price has started to retrace before I thought!
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I forgot to say that for a proper trend changing, the green line (chikou span) have to break the red line (kijun-sen) and that is not happened yet.
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The volume is a disgrace right now, this is going down. Oh, for those who says that this is a bull trap, this is not at all. Is just the way the market works. Bull trap is a pump and dump scheme, where big volumes are moved in a matter of minutes up and down.
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Retest of the trendline is a fact. No more than 7 hours to touch it.
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That could be a nice entry for scalpers. Expect a rebound.
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This seems a hammer reversal to me.
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I adjusted the fibonacci retracement from the last low to the last high. Will the price rebound at the trendline or will test the fibo level at 8400? Most likely looks that will taste the 0.236 fibo.
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Well well, Bitcoin is still facing a volume issue. We finally kissed the trendline and a expected bounce sent the price to 8869. I just checked the 5 min chart and the price is not showing respect at all for the kumo supports. Breaking the kumo again to the downside will make the price not going back to our last high.
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The price is making what I call reversed pattern in the 5 min chart. This is the 2 options that I´m seeing so far. If we manage to break the kumo, price will tend to drop further.
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And it happened, the price just entered in the downside of the kumo, let´s see how it reacts. In the other hand, we are entering the kumo in the 30 min chart and I found another reversed pattern in the 45 min chart.
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A break of the line that I marked in green means likely a retest of the last high at 9020.
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We are facing an important candle in the 30 min chart. If we hold the price below the 8020 mark before the candle ends, will confirm this mini downtrend so far. Bitcoin is showing fierce resistance in the 15 min chart on the green line that I marked just before.
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Last 7 minutes to see see if this is mini downtrend going up or down, exciting!
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Ok so things are going as expected. I´m seeing a big reversed patter in the 1 hour chart as well, which is a clear sign of bearish momentum. Expect more drop for at least 30 min. Bulls, don´t open a long trade now in BTC or any other alt!
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And it happened! the price touched the fibo level that I marked a few days ago with an spike at 9215. I was a bit anxious anticipating the price to fall from the last high at 9045 and everything could happen now, however I´m not buying yet. I had a buy order at 9070 and sold at 9200, so I took a cut from this little pump. Now I have a buy order placed at 9250 expecting the price to go around 11k first if the price don´t respect this last high. Let´s see!
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Ok I moved my buy order to 9460. Right now with this volatility the order could get triggered and reverse in a matter of minutes. If we continue the uptrend, 10850 appears as first target to take profit, but most likely we will try to break again the famous resistance at 11800.
Quite a while back I told myself I would not reenter the market until we broke the log trendline. Now we have got there and I am just too nervous to enter right now. I thought we'd bash up against the trendline for a while and make a push up when the market wasnt overbought. But its way overbought and has just pushed up but it seems like it can't just keep going up. I think it needs to retest the trendline but find support on it and a bit of consolidation before the next break out?
Coinamic
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@jimo79, you are right, the price will try to find support on the trendline, but again, bitcoin will face again a fat bear kumo if we don´t make new highs above 9200. And yes, I´m like you, this time I want to make a perfect entry on the market, I don´t care if I could bought it cheaper, what I care is that if I buy the price wont retrace again.
I will set up an alarm at 9200 and a buy order at 9250. Right now we are at 8860. I really doubt that will get triggered.
MAGICMARK
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@babyjungle, so what are your thoughts on this. I was thinking to go long at 9200, but hesitant as this wave has to retrace at some stage. Has anything changed with your indicators? I can't see wave 1 of an impulse going all the way to 11.2k without some kind of retrace. I mean it could happen, but the probability is low.
Coinamic
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@MAGICMARK, I moved my entry to 9460, I prefer loosing a couple of hundreds rather than entering right this moment, since there is a lot of spikes. This last pump seems like a master bull trap, but you have to protect yourself. After 9460 I´m going heavy loaded long. Definitely today and tomorrow seems the last chance for a drop, have a look at the vertical black line that I´ve drawn. The thing is, will the bulls push higher the price? If we could maintain the price below the last high, there is many chances of a reverse and then the drop will occur inside the kumo, which gives an idea that the 7500 support will be solid.
jimo79
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@babyjungle, what if we haven't broken the log trend yet? ignoring the wicks and drawing from the candle instead
Coinamic
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@jimo79, have a look at the 2 days chart, we even did´t leave the log trend based in your assumption. I´ve made a tremendous mistake not paying attention at the 2 days timeframe. It was crystal clear that we were going looking for the 0.618 that we just touched and also the fact of the trend reversal at the last 11th of this month (unfortunately I listened the advices of a couple of top traders here in TA and I didn´t buy at that levels). However we could go a bit up yet, take in consideration that in the 2014 crash we had some spikes in the log trend before really crashing. What it looks for me, is that we will have a HUGE correction in tomorrows candle. What I see is that we could even go up looking for 10400, there is a lot of fomo yet, but the correction is coming and is gonna be way heavy.
jimo79
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@babyjungle, I don't think there is going to be a huge down candle as there is too much FOMO buying up all the dips. I think we are going to have a bit of sideways and support at 9000-9500. I've been following a fractal pattern from October last year we seem to be following. We are following Oct 12 almost precisely at the moment, which suggests sideways and a bit of down to 9000 in coming days but nothing lower
jimo79
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@jimo79, I found the fractal because the daily stoch pattern matches the one from then. And this TA analysis from someone else confirmed it in my mind:
Coinamic
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@jimo79, it could be. On the other hand this guy has another TA showing the opposite.