I remember a conversation I had (totally unrelated to trading) in the early 1990's when the Internet was considered new technology. This conversation was with an older gentlemen who owned a large franchise car dealership regarding the utility of the internet with respect to his business...or his perceived utility. I'm paraphrasing, but the comment was something like...
...the Internet is only useful for price comparison...NO ONE WILL EVER BUY CARS ONLINE. PEOPLE WANT TO SEE THE CARS, SMELL THE INTERIOR, TEST DRIVE THE CAR. ALL THE INTERNET DOES IS HURT MY MARGINS.
I remembered that conversation just recently because (and I don't know why) but I think a lot of Warren Buffet's comments on Crypto. For someone who is obviously an intelligent man, why wouldn't he say something along the lines of...
...You know, I don't understand crypto currency. It's probably generational, but I'm sure as time goes on, our understanding of the potential benefits will materialize more so. Who knows, we could be on the verge of something big. I just don't know enough about it to form an investment thesis around.
Kind of like that car dealer. Now, I want to be clear... this was no dirt lot guy. He owned a mega franchise Chevy, BMW and Mazda all on one huge parcel of land. Probably 1,000 cars in inventory worth 30M. This guy was also intelligent. But today, (if he's alive) I'm sure he wouldn't even remember such conversation. I'm positive the conversation today would be...
...I was an early adopter of the Internet in my business. I was a pioneer when few of my competitors even understood how to use the Internet.
Translation: I'm a genius, I've always been one, and no one could ever say I was not a visionary when it came to the Internet. Back to Buffet...I kind of feel like he won't be around to reconcile his crypto comments. But I get the sense with his comments, I'm back in 1990 talking to a car dealer. Ok enough ranting...let talk shop.
BITCOIN
One disclaimer before I go into my BTC analysis. Trading View does not have all the BTC price data. I don't know why. Therefore, my cycle analysis labeling (as a Super Cycle) may not be correct.
I am 51% sure BTC has NOT bottomed. Unlike other crypto charts namely Solana & ADA that have full patterns to the downside that are discernable. BTC does not. My main issue with a BTC bottom is the pattern into the November 21 low of $15,460. It best counts as a 3-wave b-wave. Now if I get down into the micro fractals I could make a weak argument for an ending diagonal. Upon completing an ending diagonal, price usually goes back to the point of origination. That did happen. So, when I say I'm 51% and not 50/50 is mainly due to pattern. For me pattern takes precedence over everything. Now, for me to change my tune on a BTC bottom, I need price to breach the area of the prior high which was a the wave 4 high on 8/14/22 of $25214.57. Also, it can't be a minor breach, I'd like price to breach $26000. So, as of now, we wait for clues to see if price will give us something definitive that its intentions are to move into a new bull phase. In the absence of those confirming clues, we could drop to the next fib of $14577. Now, it would be normal for you reading this to say, he's guessing...he really has no idea....fair enough. Here's previous BTC analysis to consider.
Post 1
Post 2
I'll conclude on BTC by saying we are looking for price to get to $26,000 to confirm a SUPER CYCLE bottom. If we fail to get there, $14577 looks like the next stop for BTC.
ETHEREUM
Unlike Bitcoin, I have a nice clean bottoming pattern and what appears to be a 1-2 in place and now we're sub-dividing in our wave 3.
When this wave 3 finishes, in my opinion, in 2024, we could be at new highs. Funny when I look at ETH it bolsters the case that BTC may have bottomed.
Time will tell on crypto currency...but I can't speak for you (the reader)...but I feel like in the years to come, prices will be more reflective of the higher understanding of the value crypto affords society. Is it analogistic to the Internet?
We'll see.
Best to all,
Chris
...the Internet is only useful for price comparison...NO ONE WILL EVER BUY CARS ONLINE. PEOPLE WANT TO SEE THE CARS, SMELL THE INTERIOR, TEST DRIVE THE CAR. ALL THE INTERNET DOES IS HURT MY MARGINS.
I remembered that conversation just recently because (and I don't know why) but I think a lot of Warren Buffet's comments on Crypto. For someone who is obviously an intelligent man, why wouldn't he say something along the lines of...
...You know, I don't understand crypto currency. It's probably generational, but I'm sure as time goes on, our understanding of the potential benefits will materialize more so. Who knows, we could be on the verge of something big. I just don't know enough about it to form an investment thesis around.
Kind of like that car dealer. Now, I want to be clear... this was no dirt lot guy. He owned a mega franchise Chevy, BMW and Mazda all on one huge parcel of land. Probably 1,000 cars in inventory worth 30M. This guy was also intelligent. But today, (if he's alive) I'm sure he wouldn't even remember such conversation. I'm positive the conversation today would be...
...I was an early adopter of the Internet in my business. I was a pioneer when few of my competitors even understood how to use the Internet.
Translation: I'm a genius, I've always been one, and no one could ever say I was not a visionary when it came to the Internet. Back to Buffet...I kind of feel like he won't be around to reconcile his crypto comments. But I get the sense with his comments, I'm back in 1990 talking to a car dealer. Ok enough ranting...let talk shop.
BITCOIN
One disclaimer before I go into my BTC analysis. Trading View does not have all the BTC price data. I don't know why. Therefore, my cycle analysis labeling (as a Super Cycle) may not be correct.
I am 51% sure BTC has NOT bottomed. Unlike other crypto charts namely Solana & ADA that have full patterns to the downside that are discernable. BTC does not. My main issue with a BTC bottom is the pattern into the November 21 low of $15,460. It best counts as a 3-wave b-wave. Now if I get down into the micro fractals I could make a weak argument for an ending diagonal. Upon completing an ending diagonal, price usually goes back to the point of origination. That did happen. So, when I say I'm 51% and not 50/50 is mainly due to pattern. For me pattern takes precedence over everything. Now, for me to change my tune on a BTC bottom, I need price to breach the area of the prior high which was a the wave 4 high on 8/14/22 of $25214.57. Also, it can't be a minor breach, I'd like price to breach $26000. So, as of now, we wait for clues to see if price will give us something definitive that its intentions are to move into a new bull phase. In the absence of those confirming clues, we could drop to the next fib of $14577. Now, it would be normal for you reading this to say, he's guessing...he really has no idea....fair enough. Here's previous BTC analysis to consider.
Post 1
Post 2
I'll conclude on BTC by saying we are looking for price to get to $26,000 to confirm a SUPER CYCLE bottom. If we fail to get there, $14577 looks like the next stop for BTC.
ETHEREUM
Unlike Bitcoin, I have a nice clean bottoming pattern and what appears to be a 1-2 in place and now we're sub-dividing in our wave 3.
When this wave 3 finishes, in my opinion, in 2024, we could be at new highs. Funny when I look at ETH it bolsters the case that BTC may have bottomed.
Time will tell on crypto currency...but I can't speak for you (the reader)...but I feel like in the years to come, prices will be more reflective of the higher understanding of the value crypto affords society. Is it analogistic to the Internet?
We'll see.
Best to all,
Chris
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.