Well everyone who is going long now, needs to learn how a bottom and reversal looks. A drop like this, without ANY kind of bounce, is indeed very very weak.
What is more, the longs are still much higher than the short, meaning that too many people think this is the bottom, they want to long prematurely, and BTC wants to naturally destroy as many people as it can XD No, but really, 4h stoch RSI overbought, high longs, and no bounce. Looking as if BTC would like to finally see the high 4 thousands again.
I think it will do so the latest in 1-3 days, maybe even today in the evening.
The support area dates back to a peak from 2017, which topped at shortly below 5000. This is the area to watch.
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I should add that I don't consider this sell wave to be the final bottom of this bearmarket. I expect that we see the final bottom in a few months, at around 3000, maybe even 2500. We need a brutal, final capitulation, that's just how btc rolls. Only when enough dreams to be rich have been brutally destroyed, and only the strong hands remain, only then will btc continue its rise to new highs. See my other charts for details.
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I'll go long and ride the bounce, as soon as the shorts are above longs again, and as soon as 4h stoch RSI is simultaneously oversold again.
@lemonsandshade, Many more probably, especially as QE is coming to an end.
Pippes3232
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Agreed most people rely on technical analysis. But in the long term we need fundamental analysis and this shown in your other logarithmic graph. We forget BTC is not a traditional asset class.
SebastianofMoon
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@Pippes3232, I agree absolutely. One should always keep that in mind, yes. Shor-time btc might behave like a traditional asset. But certainly not long-term ;)
SebastianofMoon
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And here it comes, surprise, surprise :)
Counter
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Countertrade the bears:
SebastianofMoon
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@Counter, Unfortunately the bears are in power for the time being XD