I did a detailed analysis of how the bitcoin price reacts to VWAPs formed by top or low
In 2013 when we passed the vwap from the April 2013 top we got +790% In 2017 when we passed the vwap from the 2016 top we got +2927% In the year 2019 when we passed the vwap from the top of 2017 upwards we got a +80% movement In conclusion, when Bitcoin is on top of all the vwap, a major move upwards is to be expected.
And when it's below all vwap, a significant downward movement is to be expected.
At this moment we are just passing the VWAp from the top of 2019 upwards. The reasonable target 1 in the medium term is the supply zone formed in 2017 that was not tested yet and that is approximately +80% of the current price.
The invalidation is a closing down of the accumulation formed over the 2019 vwap (lost $8400 on daily close)