I published a quick update that said I sold 15% of my position. I did NOT exit my entire position, all I did was lock in some profit which was part of my plan if you read the details of my previous reports. I am still , but I am simply following best practices: sell into strength. Locking in some profit is never a bad idea, and it reduces risk. If you don't understand this, then greed drives your perspective. It also means you have not learned anything from the 20K sell off.
Do I think this market is going higher? Yes. I locked in some profit just in case the retrace becomes more pronounced which is still possible. In fact, the was tested at the 10680 low and held which is a sign of strength. The problem is this market needs to establish a reversal pattern in the current price location, otherwise it may break the .
If the breaks, is that the start of a new move? Not necessarily. It just means momentum is becoming less . If there is a break and decisive close below the , I will be watching for the 9604 level (.382 of current swing) as the next support for a reversal and place to add to my position trade.
In summary, my choice to sell 15% of my position was not a reaction. It was a predetermined adjustment that I described ahead of time, which required the market to show a certain condition, and it appeared. Emotion does not drive my decisions, my well defined plan does instead. I was interested in selling around 11400 but instead of placing a limit order earlier, I chose to give the market a chance to go further. This is the trade off that we must always face when in these situations. I can place a limit order and sell too early if the market goes straight to 12K, or I can give the market a chance in which case I may get less than 11400 if I use a candle low as my trigger to take profit. There is no perfect way to do this. Your choice here is a function of your risk tolerance. I still have 85% of my position, so what if I make a little less as the market goes higher, and I will add back to it IF the market gives me that opportunity. Managing a position trade is like managing inventory, and I just locked in some "retail" prices at a potential peak.
Questions and comments welcome.
Only weakness i can see is lack of fall back plan. But i guess being good at price action makes you act instantly and not expecting it before it happens.
isnt there 10405 level (,236 fib) before 9604?
or is it small diffr. between 10680 and 10405 thats why u dont see it