Good morning, traders. We have had a rather uneventful weekend which has been upsetting to many as the market has not provided direction. Tether Bitcoin pairs continue to print a premium over USD Bitcoin pairs. CME futures printed a gap at $5500 which will need to be filled, however this could come after price moves down first. Bitstamp has a 1H gap around $5400 as well. Price is not looking particularly strong at this time, however as price drops to $5100 the order books flash strong bids so we may be seeing retail selling into professional hands at that level. Currently, the daily candle has gapped down at $5161 so I expect that if we do drop it won't be long-lived. The recent weekly close printed a candle spread almost identical to the previous week's, just ending where that previous week began, and the weekly remains bullish at 55.5 at this time, though Stoch RSI is still overbought but finally falling.
We can see price has crossed above the EQ of the descending channel which is usually considered bullish. If price pushes through the channel's resistance then we should be expecting a target of $5800-$5900, depending on when it happens, based on the height of the channel. Price has remained on the topside of the TR as it continues to print higher lows overall. So the move up mentioned ultimately would result in a target between $5900 and $6000, based on the height of the TR. Of course this is all in addition to the older targets from larger patterns that we have previously discussed. In the near term, a close above $5206 should get the ball rolling on greater appreciation and would have price targeting the top of the ascending channel that it may current be printing, as well as have price exiting the descending channel and TR.
Everything else aside, the blue TR is the dominant pattern that traders should be watching. Secondary is the descending channel that price has been printing since the recent high. And third is the ascending channel within that descending channel. We have the monthly close tomorrow, so price may continue more sideways than anything else through that time. I have continued to mention that we are either at, or near, the top of this third wave and trying to trade this is often futile for most traders because they tend to hold for a big move and then get liquidated or scared off due to the noise before it happens. For most traders, this is not the time to be in a trade. It's best to wait for confirmation of this upward movement to be completed and then go long at the completion of the corrective wave 4.
My final thought is in regard to a short squeeze. There's a lot of talk about it due to the significant increase in shorts, their overbought level, and the strong shorts-to-long ratio, as well as the longs oversold level. Since short squeezes most often happen at support, we would need to consider the blue TR's EQ as support. But what else should have us considering that this may occur? We have printed three daily dojis after that strong drop. As a matter of fact, the daily chart, starting from the recent high, looks a lot like a checkmate pattern (can also see this on the 4H chart). The large candle's low at $4991.42 has not been reached since the initial drop last Thursday. Instead, price has been trapped in a narrow trading range of about $150 on top of the TR's EQ (i.e. support level). Confirmation of this pattern would be 1-2 strong bullish candles. The short squeeze wouldn't fully commence until around $5700, but the shorts that piled up just a few hundred dollars above the current price could be the fuel to get price to that level.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
We can see price has crossed above the EQ of the descending channel which is usually considered bullish. If price pushes through the channel's resistance then we should be expecting a target of $5800-$5900, depending on when it happens, based on the height of the channel. Price has remained on the topside of the TR as it continues to print higher lows overall. So the move up mentioned ultimately would result in a target between $5900 and $6000, based on the height of the TR. Of course this is all in addition to the older targets from larger patterns that we have previously discussed. In the near term, a close above $5206 should get the ball rolling on greater appreciation and would have price targeting the top of the ascending channel that it may current be printing, as well as have price exiting the descending channel and TR.
Everything else aside, the blue TR is the dominant pattern that traders should be watching. Secondary is the descending channel that price has been printing since the recent high. And third is the ascending channel within that descending channel. We have the monthly close tomorrow, so price may continue more sideways than anything else through that time. I have continued to mention that we are either at, or near, the top of this third wave and trying to trade this is often futile for most traders because they tend to hold for a big move and then get liquidated or scared off due to the noise before it happens. For most traders, this is not the time to be in a trade. It's best to wait for confirmation of this upward movement to be completed and then go long at the completion of the corrective wave 4.
My final thought is in regard to a short squeeze. There's a lot of talk about it due to the significant increase in shorts, their overbought level, and the strong shorts-to-long ratio, as well as the longs oversold level. Since short squeezes most often happen at support, we would need to consider the blue TR's EQ as support. But what else should have us considering that this may occur? We have printed three daily dojis after that strong drop. As a matter of fact, the daily chart, starting from the recent high, looks a lot like a checkmate pattern (can also see this on the 4H chart). The large candle's low at $4991.42 has not been reached since the initial drop last Thursday. Instead, price has been trapped in a narrow trading range of about $150 on top of the TR's EQ (i.e. support level). Confirmation of this pattern would be 1-2 strong bullish candles. The short squeeze wouldn't fully commence until around $5700, but the shorts that piled up just a few hundred dollars above the current price could be the fuel to get price to that level.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
