Bitcoin Bull Flag Triangle Target 22.000, Part 7

I posted this analysis 6 hours ago, but accidently pushed the private idea button, so here it goes again.


This is the last analysis with this title, because after a lot of patience it got reached and impressively even over reached by a lot. As you might remember, i kept talking about that bull flag from 2 weeks ago which had a target around 22K, but wasn't sure it that would be the key target to follow or not. Now we can see that key pattern was that triangle i showed since 2 weeks ago, with that red line version playing out pretty nicely :).

As you might know, targets are often turning points, but that is something different than a trend change. Since the rally was so strong, speed and volume, i have no reason at all, at this point at least, to think that this might be a trend change. Think the trend is still clearly bullish, but that doesn't mean we can't see any nasty moves in the mean time.

Like a week ago, i also described a scenario of stop hunting bears above 20K and then shake out bulls back to like 18K, but would depend on the breakout strength though. One of the updates i did yesterday:

Week ago or so i mentioned a few times, a scenario, of maybe pumping to that 22K and then shake out back to like 18K or so. But because the rally yesterday was so big and strong and with high volume, it's just very unlikely.
But can we see some tricks on the short term, well the markets are all about shake outs and stop hunts. But do i think we can drop, to that 22k/21.8k? Well it isn't that far away. Is lower possible, yes its possible. But do i see it go below 21Kish, based on yesterdays strong rally, very unlikely to me.

Another update during the breakout 2 days ago, at the first push around 20.500:

So far the breakout looks real and stable. Would be ideal to see it make a daily close above 20.500, would be better to see it go a bit higher even. Think the higher the daily close, the bigger the follow through will be

So think safe to say, no worries for that last message, since the daily close was above 21.3K, the breakout was super stable and strong. No weird drops or whatever, each profit taking drop got bought back up just as easily. So i have several factors now, for me to think that a big drop is very unlikely.




Just going to post some of the updates I did today, getting tired of writing things double :)


It looked pretty decent i see now while i was sleeping, but now taking a lot of time to move higher, so wonder if they can anytime soon. So now thinking maybe the wedge on the right might be something to think of as well. The low of the wedge would be the same as that blue line i showed yesterday, the shakeout in the green box.

Level i mentioned yesterday, 23.300/500 hasn't been touched, getting sold several time times now in the 23100/200 zone. So, either that zone breaks today, or we need to think about that wedge version.

Sometimes we get to see those super fast small ABC correction, like the one we had yesterday, which happen during big pumps for Bitcoin, but normally they should be the bigger ones, like we are probably seeing now.

As long as we don't see that red line break, think for today it's probably the most likely outcome. Correction could go much lower, but i really do not want to see it go below 21.800ish. Because holding there and seeing a bounce would be a sign of strength.

You can also see, looks pretty damn similar to 2/3 weeks ago. Those wedges i showed as well, 3 times in a row.

These here, just like fractals, they aren't magical tools. Yes they play out often but also fail. In a situation like this, to me it's a tool to find a real objective reason to hold on for example to a long position from the 18K or 19K.

Just like i kept saying past weeks, the trend is bullish. Strong rallies (impulse waves) then the sideways shitshows being correctional. So as long as they are correctional, i have no reason to be bearish for the mid term. A break of 19k/120k would tell me the bull trend might be over. But of course not waiting for those prices. So 21.800 area is already an important zone for me

While writing this, seeing another attempt to bounce up from the 22.400 low, which has been successful many times now since yesterday. First resistance is that trend line , then small ones around 22.800 and 22.900. That think red line (around 23.100) has to break to prevent a drop below the 22.400 to possibly that 21.800 zone. So the range we have now is 22.400 and 23.100.

I know many are wondering, are we going to rally much more from here. Well, all the ingredients are there to see another big push, but as always (and like 2 days ago), it will depend on the strength of the breakout. Saying it will or won't, is a pure guess in my opinion. Almost forgot, as you can see i have drawn 2 targets for this correction, the one around 22.k/21.8k and the one around around 21.3. Both can still turn out bullish, but to be more confident, it's better to see the first one hold, because the sooner buyers step in again, the stronger bullst probably are.






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Previous analysis:

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Oops :)

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Looks as if that curved shape i showed earlier today (in the hidden post), was real, since it broke, tested and bounced. But now the bounce is getting stopped again around 23.200. Also no momentum at this attempt to break up. There is an option to make a right shoulder here for an (unreliable type of) inverse H&S. There has to be some acceleration at some point for Bitcoin, otherwise it could come back all the way down again.

In case the 13.200, we should see more upwards movement. The highs of past days will probably be a tough one to break. Because it's weekend, i might even think it won't happen until Sunday night.

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The danger is this, channels like this, on low time frames, tend to eventually break down. So bulls need to break upwards from it

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In a previous update i said 13.200, should be: "In case the 23.200 breaks"

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So right shoulder formed, acceleration happened, but we can see some big resistance here. That always sucks of course when your watching that closely, thinking why doesnt it just squeeze right through it?

I always think of it like this, as you know, real breakouts always should come together with high volume. How do you get high volume? Well, through a big volume fight between bulls and bears :)


Think if bulls can hold that green zone, ideally even above 23800/850, then the second push should be a bigger one. If so, then it could pump a lot more. If the next push stalls again at lets say, 24.200/400, i would be careful/watching for a possible fake out.