BTCUSD Long term scenario

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
On the 1-day timeframe chart long term BTC analysis suggests that BTC finally gains strength. There should be a new rally soon, it wont we similar to the previous where BTC was pumped however it will be a gradual rise within months till the middle of the Autumn. It doesn't look like this time BTC will fail again. There are a much more solid technical and fundamental foundation this time.

Ichi cloud lines intersection and XABCD pattern with repeated BB contraction suggest that there should be trend reverse. This is confirmed by regular bullish divergence and price movement in the median channel.

Nevertheless there are a high possibility of decrease in the short term. On the large timeframe scale it can be seen that the price should go back to the critical support level around $5900. There will be more thorough analysis of short term timeframe chart later.

Still there is no guarantee of a great and smooth rally. When it consolidates around support line in the short term there will be new wave of growth which can be accompanied by drawbacks or sharp rises.

We have a very strong rally foundation now the only problem is that the market is still not confident to just buy and FOMO again. Trust has been destroyed during two last month of market falls. So there is a big chance BTC will go sideways in the mid term after short term consolidation.

Conclusion: current BTC price rise is only upward correction of a downtrend in the short term. The price will move to the mentioned on the chart zone. However according to analysis in the long term the price should move upward after that till Autumn. Moreover in the mid term there is a chance of sideways movement.

Breaking $10 000 level will be a strong sign of a new wave of growth which will be confirmed after consolidation around $11 360
Comment: Look update of the short term scenario which is in the related ideas below
Trade active: The price movement replicates our short term forecast arrows. The price moved up from the channel then after sideways trend moved down, again up and now after some sideways movement we expect a decrease.

When the mentioned decrease happens the growth which is forecasted in the long term analysis will start.
Comment: BTC perfectly follows our analysis, after the price touched the resistance of $6800 level, the market does not have enough strength to move higher.
Now the price down to the level that was the recent local resistance which now acts as a support. There is a high probability of breaking it, according to our previous signal for short position on BitMEX. If this happens, then we can again face with a downtrend like it was forecasted in the short term analysis.

Be cautious, altcoin markets also do not show positive moves right now, as BTC instability brings uncertainty for investors.

The possibility of a further BTC growth, we need a rebound from the current level of $6500 to the zone above current resistance. If this does not happen, then our short position and BitMEX signal is in power the price should move to area of $6300.


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