Aggressively Bet on Rain when the First Drops Start Falling

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
371 0 11
Price is above its bellwether 4hr 200MA with MACD rising above zero as well as its signal line.

The massive volume required to raise price $25 in a single candle is undoubtedly co-ordinated action, and ee follow the whales.

1day and 1week chart indicators warn that this is an intermediate wave and will eventually correct back to support near $600 or $680. Even so, this trade targets Fib extension targets at $630 and $680.

Much higher is possible but the projected distance to $680 represents a healthy profit. Good enough for an objectively successful trade.
Trade active: Buy trade open at $593 (Bitstamp)

Quarter position size (max leverage)

$20 stop-loss distance at $573.

Build position at Fib extension increments. Take profit liberally as price approaches $680
Comment: Despite an adverse smash-down, trend remains up in the 1week, 3day and 1day charts. Hold
Comment: A cautionary close of this position is dictated by the 1day chart indicators: the long trade is in profit but a potential downside correction could pull below the initial entry level. Take full profit now and look for a new entry - possibly from much lower in the chart.

Long-term trend remains up (1week and 3day charts) and the 1day indicators (chart below) imply ongoin consolidation BUT the stochastics (top, magenta circle) have not yet grouped at their minimum as they typically do prior to advance.

This warns of a potential sell-off or downward correction, at least. Notice that price has been unable to rise above $620, nevermind approach the dominant long-term resistance at $680. A frustrated sell-off could result in a drop-and-bounce that will also reflect in the stochastics grouping at their minimum.

Downside targets are in the red rectangle and span the Fib retracement levels from 0.5 to 0.89 between $550 and $470.

Trade closed manually: As per the initial analysis above this has been an intermediate advancing wave.

Trade was opened at $593 and manually closed, today, at $608 due to downside risk.

A downward correction may not unfold, but the inability of the market to advance beyond $620 decisively means that holding long here - on hopamine - exposes the profitable trade to risk.
Trade active: This trade reopened on 10 Oct as documented here:
Comment: Continue holding long on this trade as it approaches the June top.

Upward momentum in MACD (magenta circle) suggests ongoing advance with a Fib extension target at $825 (Bitstamp).

An initial reaction at the level of the June top ($775) will not be the "end of trend" although a deep retracement to current levels ($734) is possible.

Hold long regardless - according to the largest sensical timeframe indicators its still a long way to the top.

Comment: The larger trend remains up but a correction is due.

Compounding RSI divergence warns of a loss of upward momentum (blue annotation). Failure of the stochastics to group at their maximum value on new highs is a medium-term bearish indication (magenta circle).

Another phenomenon that characterizes bitcoin price's behavior is the gap that forms between MACD Bollinger Bands and MACD zero (red arrows).

The expected correction low should be in the blue zone - ideally $680 - but strong bullish bias in the chart may see the market find support at the $700 psych level.

A caveat to the above forecast is that we have an unresolved target at $810 - confirmed by overlapping Fib extension and magnetic line (see the previous update). The market may blow off to a new 2016 high before retesting $680 long-term support. Then all hell should break loose in the bitcoin price chart.

(edit: I would like to state my view that there is a strong possibility that bitcoin price will surpass gold price in the coming weeks - a global news event that will fuel a new bitcoin price all-time high)

If your trade was opened below $680, I would hold through the correction, because its depth may turn out to be shallow due to upward buying pressure.

Bitstamp 1day chart:

Comment: apologies, annotations are not reflecting in the chart above, and TV does not allow the comment (or chart) to be edited after the fact. Stochastics are in green, second from top, RSI third from top and MACD with Bollinger Bands immediately above price.
Comment: If you would like to view the annotations, the annotated chart is published here:
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