Using the NVT indicator it appears that Bitcoin is taking off too soon. Primarily because the recent December bottom was higher than the March low of the indicator. As opposed to the previous bear market where both lows hit a 50 - 55 score. Currently there is a fine gap between that score and Bitcoin's present price.
Also the bullish sequence since the end of January appears to be stronger than the same time period of the previous cycle.
Can this mean that the recovery phase will this time also be more aggressive? An indication that maybe the accumulation - distribution stage will this time be shorter? It certainly can but I don't expect a considerable rise before the next Halving.
Umm...there’s literally ONE TOUCH .... on a WICK... on the price action trend line you drew. WTF?
ashaman
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I think we are earlier in the cycle. The point you identified in the last bear market is *after* the capitulation volume spike. We haven't had one of those yet... I would say we are Dec 15 2014 is a better analogue to the current location in the market cycle.