Now if you haven't seen my BTC update on the last idea, we're pretty much up 5% after a short that was pretty much predicted exactly by our chart. Where do the BULLS go from here? It's only natural for sell volume to slow down here. I've drawn some fib lines to get an idea of what to expect.
It would be completely natural to get a bounce at the golden 0.618 level, so it would be wise to consider taking some profits after our small win. However, the sell pressure is still on, and we've got quite a tall candle to fill in. I expect to see some consolidation at the 0.618 rather than the bounce. This will form another small bear flag (red arrows). From there we can expect another leg down to our initial target of around the 7700.
It's relevant to note that the lower we go, the farther we step away from the 20 and 50 EMA. The further we get, the more likely a bounce is to occur. Stay on our toes and not get too greedy. We should not count out the possibility of a quick bounce to squeeze out the shorts. If we do bounce up from the 0.618 level, it would make sense to reach the 0.5 level and then back down to our target of 7700.
I'll be keeping an eye on it, and of course, keep you updated.
You're responsible for your own choices, this is my own personal analysis and there are always risks involved. I try to lay out the potential risk:reward in the near future for entertainment purposes only.
gl;hf
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Looking at the charts now, one might think I have a crystal ball. We are pretty much right on track with my predictions.. Here's a recap of what just happened:
- Symmetric Triangle with the expectation of a downward break > CHECK - Consolidation at the 0.618 resistance level > CHECK - Another downward break from the flag to our target of 7700 > HALF WAY THERE
We are almost there.. just hang on tight and we'll regroup on where we're headed next. Remember this is for education purposes only.. I think I might start preparing for a bounce at the 7700 level. See you guys there.
So watch and wait..no buy order to catch the bounce, but look for a bigger move perhaps..better to be safe than sorry and take a watch and see approach. Good deal. thank you
mrsceleste
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Is that based on the major support line..7680 ish area on the day chart..going back some time? I agree. This is awesome to watch..I have a buy order in place for around 7650 for the bounce..just watching I could be off of course
jayrsawal
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@mrsceleste, You're spot on. 7700 is a fairly used (relatively lol) historic support/resistance line. That said, it's hard to try catching falling knives.. need to be more careful when trading the downward trend. We could easily dip down to the 6000 and below.
Let's make a killing on the way there! Hah.
mrsceleste
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Love this analysis. I agree!
AdriTrading
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I shorted like a retarded, let's hope this sh!t goes down :P !!