mark124
Short

Did Bitcoin rally just to set lower high on monthly timeframe?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Chart says it all. We had constant lower highs and lower lows for entire year. The pattern has not be broken and there's a chance that this rally is just for setting another lower high - as long as it doesn't break 8500.

In such scenario we can resume downtrend easily from here after a brief consolidation.

Looking at the monthly chart, BTC is open to all options. That is - even bearish continuation to the downside.
The impulsiveness of this really is not a good thing for a potential recovery. Markets don't transition that easily from bearish mode to uber-parabola mode.

8500 is really critical level, as it could negate this scenario. That's why i think we already topped out.
This way big players, can technically still have an option to continue the bear market and charts would be still technically correct.
Comment: Whales are pushing it really cheaply. Pumping 30m before H4 close, so it closes as high as possible. Possible reversal zone here.
Comment: The high was not taken out and as kind of expected... we seem to have reversed and possibly topped.

On lower intervals. We also got first H4 close below last higher low. Indicating break of market structure and incoming corrective impulse to downside.

Overall, long term market is still open to bearish scenario. Unless 8500 is taken out, however break of in market structure is suggesting this is unlikely for now.
Comment: Don't be afraid of this double last push up - attempt. Big players are seeking liquidity from sunday retail players, breakout traders and shorts - stop losses. So these people fill big players short/sell orders.
This is part of distribution that is common across bitcoin.

The top wont be taken - and i'm saying this with high degree of certainity, as i have seen this stuff over and over again.
Comment: As the market approaches top for the third time, there's a chance of short stop hunt over last top to grab liquidity. The stop shouldn't exceed a maximum of 50-70$ from the current high and 2018 monthly high still shouldn't be taken out. Be aware of that scenario and that would be the final push.
Comment: Scenario invalidated as monthly high was taken.

Still keepying an eye on watching monthly + 3D + 1D close.
Comment: I have a feeling that we might be witnessing largest manipulative move ever. Watching monthly close. It's still possible that we get to 7700 within 24h if this is real correction and close monthly below previous close. At the moment i'm writing this, the price is at 8400.

That would mean scenario is back in.
Comment: 8100... this definitely is gonna happen. We're gonna close monthly below last high and form lower high within 24h. Downtrend continuation is VERY VERY likely as this happens.

The timing is no coincidence.

Congratulation to smart-money if this happens, you still pull stuff that noone can expect ;)
Comment: Monthly closed above last high therefore is bullish.

Idea invalidated and finalized
8100... this definitely is gonna happen. We're gonna close monthly below last high and form lower high within 24h. Downtrend continuation is VERY VERY likely as this happens.
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Scenario invalidated as monthly high was taken.

Still keepying an eye on watching monthly + 3D + 1D close.
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Don't be afraid of this double top attempt. Big players are seeking liquidity from sunday retail players, breakout traders and shorts - stop losses.
This is part of distribution that is common across bitcoin.
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I strongly believe that We will get at least one more time to buy bitcoin below $5000 before the next bull season! Let's see how it goes!


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Finally some sense. Great post and good points.
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