Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within a sustainable Channel Up every since the June 18 Low and today hit the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since April 21 2022. The trend looks strong considering that the MACD on the 1W time-frame is on a Bullish Cross, however if you are a short/ medium-term trader you should be skeptical of these levels.
The reason isn't just the fact that the 1D MA100 is a Resistance but as you see, the last 1W MACD Bullish Cross (March 30) was formed on a market top and failed to deliver a sustainable rise. As a result, we should be looking for a break above the November 10 2021 Lower Highs trend-line (started after the market's All Time High), which would be a bullish break-out signal towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
On the long-term, only a break above the 1D MA200 can call for a long-term trend reversal to bullish, as the MA200 was the one that rejected BTC on the March 28 High. Also on the long-term, it would be useful to consider the importance of the 0.382 - 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels, when the 1D MA200 breaks, as the highest volatility of this Bear Cycle has been seen within those levels.
Why are you bias to the upside? Looks like its still in a long term down trend byt you prefer not to see this and put false hope and new money in the market so you can short.
availableFish16598
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looks good
Crypto-Swing
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I find the tale of the market is even more definitive in the weekly LMACD.