First off this time is not different. It's all same, all market psychology. After all, we are human beings with similar greed and fear.
Why you may ask? Simple Reasons: 1) Market will go through a disinflationary bust. Every asset will regress to its mean value or below. 2) S1F and S2F models don't take into factor black swan events like this and I believe in lengthening cycle theory with the same price prediction. 3) Something unexpected happened in the market in the last few weeks. Euphoria is over the top: overleveraged, overhyped, overbought. 4) Crypto market is still highly correlated with the equity market because of liquidity/ high volume. 5) DXY and bonds are breaking out to the upside. Crypto is inversely correlated to bonds and USD.
When? - I don't have my crystal ball with me right now, but my intuition tells me soon. I may be wrong but in the coming weeks or two months.
How to survive? - Set tight stop losses on all your long-term holdings. - OR Sell everything. - Buy bonds.
I didn't want to publish anything this year as I explained in my last post, but this is important and I don't want anyone to lose everything you gained so far.
Comment
⋅
prnt.sc/ylkfty Stock2Flow model. How I believe it would react in the face of a black swan!
Excellent and informative post. Thanks for sharing your idea.
Totalfreedom1
⋅
stock to flow will hold. min 100 k max 320 k or more by the end of 2021. buy bonds? ahahahahahahahahahahhahahhaha
filagotnochill
⋅
@luca1973, yah we will get there, but not on the current timeline he predicts. There will be major deviations because of a black swan event. And bonds are a great hedge against disinflationary busts.
Alecto
⋅
do you suggest to buy bonds with low interest and imminent inflation?
VincePrince
⋅
Great indicators, thanks for sharing.
Struikrover
⋅
Interesting stuff! Market makers create perma dumps in "overly healthy" markets, resulting in events that are labeled black swan by the mass. However, the only black swan part for me remained: when will it happen? This helps a lot!