Hi all! its been a while since I did this, to all the followers hope you're keeping well!
I'm touching base on BTC based recent developments and thought id share my idea...
On the 1h timeframe as shown BTC was forming an ascending triangle since its last high on April 23rd at 7.7k- I personally took this trade at 7550 after several wick rejections towards the lower end were getting higher- this is risky as there wasn't a breakout yet but I like to play on the edge sometimes! the triangle broke out this morning (depending on where you live may be night!) ...we still need an excel in volume to allow a successful upside move- if it does 7876 is the official breakout target if we followed a typical ascending triangle (I just think nothing in this market is typical so we may break higher).
Yes this may all be a trap and with low volume this breakout could be fake and we could head straight down before day end however the last few days the price has steadily been accumulating and I think it'll be stupid to fall without another squeeze. interestingly on the 4H BTC has been in a huge bearish wedge which upper band lies at the 8/8.1k region, ETH is also in a bearish wedge with clear bearish divergence- the upper band lies for this at around 200/205. I will be monitoring the wedge very carefully, its not certain but certainly worth watching- for me it seems in the short term we should be able to fulfil the 8k BTC and 200 ETH at which point we shall watch for price action and re assess.
Personally I hate people crying bull and bear when price moves up and down- long term we are still in a huge downtrend, price will move up and down its the nature of the market. We just have to play our cards right to catch moves and ultimately manage our capital.
Hope this helps and feel free to get in touch! PEACEEE
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Wow! this is fascinating- I can't wrap my head around it.
The ascending triangle- we saw a fake breakout below only for price to project higher over the 7.7k- clear stop hunt.
the bearish wedge is still in play with boundary at the 8-8.1k for BTC and looking at alt movements in ADA/XLM/XRP I reckon we may hit the 8k before a fall.
The fascinating thing is how price is alternating between alts- all have had different levels of increase but right now if you look at the 4h on ADA and XLM on USD pairs there is bearish divergence on both, ETH bearish div didn't really play out yet but its still in a bearish wedge and interestingly 90% are long in ETH- surely that's calling for a sharp down move!?
I can't say whats going to happen- we have to wait for BTC, I don't even think its an ascending triangle anymore as price is failing to rocket, its holding a steady uptrend line BUT WHEN AND IF broken this could be a sharp drop considering the position alts are in....I would stay of a trade if you aren't in one yet!
Definitely a struggle for new money entering the market as well. See some resistance at 220B on the Crypto Market Cap including BTC (TOTAL). Fascinating times indeed. Great Update!
Moski369
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Hi Movali, I suggest you to have a look in the chart between May-June 2019 in 4h interval.
You would be surprised.
Please let me know your opinion.
😊
Movali123
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@Moski369, hi buddy could you elloborate further or provide a screenshot!
THookerTrading
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I think that's some pretty rational analysis right there. Love to see how this all pans out. Lack of volume is pushing me more to the bearish scenario but only time will tell. Great content, keep it coming. Stay safe.
Movali123
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@THookerTrading, first of all thank you very much for the feedback. The volume is frightening, i think a break of 7.7k would confirm a short term rise at which point i am favouring the bearish wedge's in btc/eth to pan out- problem is when its easy to predict it usually means it wont happen and the market makers usually set bait and traps to ruin the normal folk! Lets wait and see and take move by move here, trade wisely and stay safe buddy, all the best
THookerTrading
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@Movali123, Good work should always get recognised! That surge in pushing the 7.7K would definitely instigate a push for 8K in my opinion. Failure to close a 4H candle about 7.7K over the next and i think we could see a drop down to the 7.2-7.3K region (hitting the trend line you've drawn), if there is an explosive rebound off that then i think we could see a continuation higher. I'll put my thoughts into chart over the next couple days and i'd love to hear any feedback! You've got a new follower thats for sure!
Movali123
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@THookerTrading it looks like a good fight at 7.7k at the moment- I actually hoped a 7.2k would come before this upward move today, I just can’t figure out how an ascending triangle would fail for it to drop to 7.2k from this level. This is the mixed signals that’s confusing me right now- I’ve set my trade SL to break even and will wait for this to plan out. 2 scenarios- either the 4h finalises over 7.7k and we hit close to 8k first, or this ascending triangle was a trap and we fall to 7.1/7.2k first before coming back
THookerTrading
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@Movali123, Exactly and all we can do is wait and watch. Will be interesting to see how it interacts with the stock market coming out of the weekend aswell. plenty to look forward too!