On the monthly scale we see 6 months of overall downtrend. We did close the December monthly candle above EMA21 with long wick below it, which is bullish.
As well as long wicks at the top indicate bearishness, long wicks at the bottom are bullish, but what we need to see is confirmation - a new swing low or high. In our case right now, we need to see a new high - above 7800, which is also a strong horizontal level on the monthly & daily and is in line with the downward channel resistance on the daily chart.
As we mentioned before, breaking out of the channel would be significant and would mean a drastic reorganization of the market structure.
If we break down the EMA21 on the monthly, next stop is EMA50 at low 5ks, which is pretty much in line with MA200 on the weekly. In our previous BTC analysis called “BTC: Fated to Go Below 6k?” we described why 5k is an important support for the price and it remains the target zone until we break out of the downward channel.
What do you think about it? Will the 31-Month EMA hold or are we going lower? Give us your opinion in the comments!
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Speaking of the monthly chart, here's an analysis we did.
The death cross on the monthly MACD is a strong indicator demonstrating that the probability that we have not bottomed out yet is very high.
CryptoBullet
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@XForceCrypto, Thanks for sharing your chart with us!
CryptoBullet
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@XForceCrypto, there is definitely some room to go down and with the death cross on the monthly MACD the macro picture looks horrendous
CryptoBullet
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@XForceCrypto, breaking down EMA21 on the monthly scale would be the confirmation
SameerN
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STRONGLY agreeeeeeeeeeeeeeee@XForceCrypto,
CryptoBullet
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@XForceCrypto, however, here is the thing: if we break down and go significantly lower, it will take some time to reverse the market. And we are 4 month away from halving.
CryptoBullet
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@XForceCrypto, Faling BTC into the halving would be scary, but, perhaps, the market needs this to shake out weak hands
SloppySeconds
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'Unbreakable 5k!' is the new 'Unbreakable 6k!', or is it 'Unbreakable 7k!' I can never keep the Unbreakables separate. Nice analysis btw. I think we should wait for price action at 5k to let us know whether we have a mini trend change because a real trend change requires capitulation and that is an emotional event, not a price level.
The death cross on the monthly MACD is a strong indicator demonstrating that the probability that we have not bottomed out yet is very high.