BTC monday analysis | 5400 to 7900 OB | Too much hopium

In this analysis I discuss the significance of the current previously bullish order block we're working through. The one that was created in the week of Nov 6, 2017 between the range of $5400 and $7900. I explain the reasoning of why we could test the bottom of the order block due to too much hope still left in the market. I've shown the different possible paths of how $5500 could be tested or maybe even the OB below it $3000- $4800 in a potential black swan event. In my opinion, there is still too much hope left in the market. However, the end is near (few more months). Yesterday was the smallest range of a daily candle in Bitcoin with the lowest volume BTC has had YTD. This tells me that the bears of the market are making progress and chipping away at the bulls' hope. Remember that bear markets last anywhere between 12-18 months. We're technically on month 10, so worst case scenario we've got 8 more months remaining. The last bear market for BTC in 2014-2015 was around the same time span. Just be patient, watch the bigger time frames and don't go bullish because crypto twitter has started going bullish. Do your own research.

Thank you for watching and listening to my thoughts! Hope you enjoyed this analysis. If you did please give me a comment or a thumbs up.

I've got two videos on YT explaining OB's, will be doing another thorough video tomorrow for those who are eager to learn :)

Cheers

Comment:

Here's the MCAP of Crypto as a whole. Remember that I told y'all a few weeks ago that I expect a bounce from the blue mcap zone: $156.8B to $181.1B. Breaking any lower than that and things are going to get really ugly.

Comment:

As you very well know, I like using inverted charts because it takes out the bias and emotion of what you want to see in a chart.

This inverted chart shows us that we have pierced the OB of $5500-$7900 many times and are now living in it. You can see that at one point we were below the 50% fib at one point (closer to $7900) but now reside under the 50 and have been for the last 5 consecutive weeks.The bearish case for BTC will strengthen if we keep staying under the 50% fib level (closer to $5500).

The bullish case is we follow the curvature of the asset and do not test the June low but we rise above the $6700, 50% fib and close 1-3 weekly candles over it. The stronger bull case is we climb above $7900 which is the 0% fib. For now, however, we are more bearish than bullish in the longer tf.

Comment:

Daily closed within the confines of the symmetrical triangle. The daily closed at $6673 which is above our 50% fib of the order block-this is a positive sign. We now need to see how we'll close the next few days. I'd like to see a retest of $6575 once more to ensure it won't break like thin ice.

Comment:

1h chart showed a nice red 9, not perfect but a decent down move. Looks like we're staying above the cloud and potentially posting another higher low.

Comment:

4h chart showed a nice hammer, reversal candle with a follow through bullish candle. You can take a trade from $6654 to $6710 for a nice 0.89% gain. This still keeps price within the confines of the symm. triangle.

Not investment advice

Comment:

2h chart showing a H&S pattern, to invalidate this pattern, price will have to exceed $6730. Buy side volume is outpacing the sell side volume.

Comment:

Neckline broken- watch for $6575 support or prev. low of $6526. If both broke $6466 is next.

Comment:

1d chart showing price flip. The new daily candle looking bearish. Look for the symmetrical triangle to be tested again