Bitcoin has just formed a golden cross for the first time since May of 2025. That golden cross led to the all-time high set in October 2025.
Okay, I am going to go out on a limb here and say that the bear market low has already been set. July 1st was the low for this Bear market at $57,735. If that is indeed the low for this bear market, it came much earlier than in the previous two market cycles, which were each very close to one year from the peak.
There is also a big difference in the drawdown amount. The drawdowns in the previous two market cycles were approximately 82% and 77%. Now, looking at the current market cycle, the drawdown from the peak on October 6th, 2025, to what I believe is the bear market low on July 1st is about 54%. So if the July 1st low is the bear market low, it occurred much sooner, and the drawdown percentage is much lower.
I'm also looking at another indicator for clues to whether the bear market low has already been set. That indicator is the Stochastic RSI.
Looking at the monthly Bitcoin chart above, pay attention to the Stochastic RSI (white line) near the bottom of the chart. I use the Stochastic RSI to confirm two things. First, it signals the end of the bull market. Pay attention to the vertical double red lines; they bracket the moment that the Stochastic RSI dives below the "20" line. If the monthly candle closes with the Stochastic RSI below 20, the bull market is over. No monthly candle has ever closed with the Stochastic RSI below 20, and Bitcoin continued higher to a new all-time high. Every time it occurred, the bull market was over.
Another thing I watch is when the Stochastic RSI moves back above the "20" line. Again, looking back, there hasn't been an instance in which the monthly candle closed with the Stochastic RSI above 20 and Bitcoin then reversed and headed lower to set a new bear market low.
As I said, I am going out on a limb because there's still quite a bit of September left, and if Bitcoin suffers a huge drop and the monthly candle closes with the Stochastic RSI below the 20 line, my whole thesis could fall apart. But I am sticking with July 1st being the bear market low for this market cycle.
Okay, I am going to go out on a limb here and say that the bear market low has already been set. July 1st was the low for this Bear market at $57,735. If that is indeed the low for this bear market, it came much earlier than in the previous two market cycles, which were each very close to one year from the peak.
There is also a big difference in the drawdown amount. The drawdowns in the previous two market cycles were approximately 82% and 77%. Now, looking at the current market cycle, the drawdown from the peak on October 6th, 2025, to what I believe is the bear market low on July 1st is about 54%. So if the July 1st low is the bear market low, it occurred much sooner, and the drawdown percentage is much lower.
I'm also looking at another indicator for clues to whether the bear market low has already been set. That indicator is the Stochastic RSI.
Looking at the monthly Bitcoin chart above, pay attention to the Stochastic RSI (white line) near the bottom of the chart. I use the Stochastic RSI to confirm two things. First, it signals the end of the bull market. Pay attention to the vertical double red lines; they bracket the moment that the Stochastic RSI dives below the "20" line. If the monthly candle closes with the Stochastic RSI below 20, the bull market is over. No monthly candle has ever closed with the Stochastic RSI below 20, and Bitcoin continued higher to a new all-time high. Every time it occurred, the bull market was over.
Another thing I watch is when the Stochastic RSI moves back above the "20" line. Again, looking back, there hasn't been an instance in which the monthly candle closed with the Stochastic RSI above 20 and Bitcoin then reversed and headed lower to set a new bear market low.
As I said, I am going out on a limb because there's still quite a bit of September left, and if Bitcoin suffers a huge drop and the monthly candle closes with the Stochastic RSI below the 20 line, my whole thesis could fall apart. But I am sticking with July 1st being the bear market low for this market cycle.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.