Okay guys, this will be short and sweet. I've been a little busy, but I had to squeeze this in because we are right at the Big Blue 1.618 fib circle boundary that has served us to well up to now, and I think we're going to see a major pivot by morning time. Without looking at the details, I can only say that it's a 50/50 shot at breaking to the up side or down side, but based on the stochastic approaching the 80% oversold boundary, I think could break to the down side. If momentum was strong enough, and if the stochastic was a bit lower, I'd be more leaning to a quick pop up. But we're forming a small red candle at the moment.
If it does break to the up side, I would expect a quick bump up to the $10,100 level, and then continue the bearish pathway down. But it is equally possible to have a strong move downward as soon as we form this next 4-hour candle. We are looking at some really weak volume right now, so I will expect to see a big spike. This is usually the pattern that we see, when volume settles down as we approach a major fib boundary that has shown us its magical powers in the past.
I'm going to wait and see which way we pivot, and then try to construct a new set on the micro level to see if we can carve out a possible pathway as we enter into no-man's land in between the big fib circle boundaries. Until then, I'll be calling this play-by-play as we watch the developments. Be careful with your trades, and take a cautious approach when listening to ANY of the fat mouth prognosticators who are calling for huge breakouts and huge dumps. Don't make your decisions based on what you hear others say, unless you can verify it yourself. Getting wrecked is no fun.
Not financial advise, entertainment purposes only!
Looking at the simplified chart with the plain blue price line, this little bump appears to be playing in to a continued formation of this descending triangle. Sometimes it takes looking at the simplified picture to get a better idea. That popped out right away, as soon as I looked at the price line. We might have a quieter period of time for the next several days if this is what is really happening. The major move did not happen yet, or so I think...
carltonzone
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Well I guess the great and powerful Big Blue 1.618 did not allow a crossing without a pivot. I had the odds of a break to the down-side higher than a positive breakout, but BTC decided to go with the scenario in the 2nd paragraph. The next thing I'm looking for is how far it will go before reversing again, and continuing downward. Will it be $10,100? It could be. If we breach $10,100 it might crawl up to the top of the parallel trading channel for a nice short-term run. IF that happens, the ensuing drop could be a lot more vigorous. On my next post, I'll investigate the possibilities with a new set of fib circles on the micro level.