OptimoomFX

Bitcoin- 30k will not hold this time (just my opinion)

Short
COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
In my last Bitcoin analysis, I said that 40k and slightly above should be sold, and this strong resistance held.
At this point 35k interim support is cleared and BtcUsd is on its way to 30k support
IMO this time 30k will not hold and a drop to 20k will follow
35 is now resistance and rallies to that zone should be sold
Only Btc above 42k would put it in a range trading mode, and this is very hard...
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Comments

100 coins
Reply
Got to wonder the mindset going on right now amongst sellers. For example, ask yourself a question:

In 6 months from now will Bitcoin be closer to $20k or $80k?

I know my answer and it really puts into perspective the opportunity that currently lies before us.
+15 Reply
mr_deadly without_worries
@without_worries what are you basing your 80k on?
Reply
@mr_deadly, The log growth curves. Previous bull market tops hit the LGC upper channel.

+2 Reply
Moschi-san without_worries
@without_worries, Thanks for your perspective. However, please consider that as China ends the possibility for their companies and individuals to trade crypto, about half of the crypto crowd is eliminated. In several Asian countries the young generation find themselves without much hope in their future possibilities and trading crypto WERE giving them hope and confidence that they could indeed make a bright future without for themselves. That light of a potential bright future, has now been turned OFF. It will take some time for all of us to grasp what it really means that about half of the worlds population is now without possibility to trade crypto. Through the coming weeks and months, the lack of new money inflow from China is bound to affect prices and the total crypto market cap negatively
+2 Reply
@Moschi-san, That is a gloomy picture.

China is not Bitcoin.

Be careful not to get bogged down by FUD. The bottom of sell offs is never ending with FUD stories. Same is true of the market top, Bitcoin replaces the dollar! New world reserve currency!

Who is 'we' incidentally? Bitcoin is permission-less border-less. The CCP can do whatever they want but they can't oppress people for ever. Dictators the world over fear a weakening grip of power. History is not kind to them. Look at Turkey, a basket case tinpot dictator destroying a once world leading economy for what?
+2 Reply
pechi123 Moschi-san
@Moschi-san, What China says and does are quite different, these stories are minutia or market noise. Markets bottom when fear is at its' greatest and the pattern complete, it's unclear the pattern is complete but probably not unless it rises above 33,174 the first indication a bottom MAY be in place, ultimately 41,300 is a more important target for the bullish case.
Reply
Andrewalh Moschi-san
@Moschi-san, not sure about your statement that China makes up half of the crypto crowd, while about 60% of the hash rate comes (came from) from China, on exchange trading volumes don't even have China in the top three (data from 2020 on statistia, open to differing data from other sources if anyone has it). As far as your statement about half the worlds population not being able to trade crypto, China accounts for 18% of the world population, so its more like less than 1/5th can't trade crypto (*on exchange). To that point, illicit goods have and will always continue to trade despite the legality, and so will bitcoin continue to trade in China, off-exchange on jump-drives or cold storage wallets. It will more than likely trade at prices above the on-exchange spot prices, too, due to the scarcity created from illegalization in the county/region. As far as the loss in hashrate goes, I can't imagine it not being bullish, supply follows demand, at least in my mind, not the other way around. Lastly, considering the data I've provided, my thought is that China is a net seller of bitcoin, seeing that miners only get "paid" when they sell their block rewards.
+1 Reply
HypnoticStrix without_worries
@without_worries, You are basing a curved upper trendline on only two data points? Arcs require 3 points to define their shape...
Reply
without_worries HypnoticStrix
@HypnoticStrix, no. I'll zoom out.. there's 3, all previous market tops. If that is not compelling I don't know what is. Also it is not a trend line, it is the difference between the natural logarithm of price action at the start of Bitcoin's life to blow off top and then dividing by the length to give the growth rate.

Also look at the correction we've had, 55% or thereabouts. Just as with previous mid-market cycles. This next 6 months are upward from here. $27.5k is amazing if you can get it.

+1 Reply