Looking at the Daily bar, we see that a very nicely shaped double top
has formed on the recent retracement off of a nasty sell off leg. The 9500 area served as a major support/resistance
then penetrated the base at the 9500 to then try to break this now resistance to the upside which failed. I believe this was a pivotal fail because this happened on really high volume
. During this time, momentum seemed to have faded. The past 7 days BTC
really hugged the bottom of the cloud serving as really tough support. Albeit, it was interesting to see BTC
to first drift into the cloud and then test the descending trendline
, it failed against the trendline
but it was still interesting to watch.
Ultimately something needs to break, this feels like a calculus integration problem where the price is bound by the 9500 trend line
, the descending trendline
and the bottom of the cloud. BTC
really has no choice but to rally or breakdown within the next day or 2 as it will test at least 1 of those parameters.
On the 4 hr
is both under the descending trend line
as well as the thick cloud, it would take a freight train to penetrate that, at least on the first attempt in the short run.
With all of this downside bias, I believe that the probability is high for BTC
to drift lower and test the 7500 mark and perhaps the 6000 mark. 7500 would be more or less the height of the 2 tops down to the base.