TheCheartBreaker

Bitcoin Long Term Cycles (Daily Chart)

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
If you study price action, Bitcoin has been respecting each level on these fibonacci circles . Every cycle increases (bull and bear) increases in length over time and the % returns diminishes too. If you analyse the price action from the 2014-2016 range and contrast it to current price action, you can see the similarities to how price respect each ring, bar some ‘noise’. Currently, price is breaching the 2nd to last fibonacci (4.236) level where, similar to last cycle, I am anticipating a final drop which should go no lower than the last part of the ring (which is approx $4.4k).l in order to ‘follow suit’ to the past cycle. I am targeting a drop between $5.8k-$7.5k over the next few weeks, and from there we should see an incline in price and then we exit this currents cycle’s fib ring, followed by a slow accumulation (similar to the last cycle) ranging between the prices of $8k-$16k for perhaps 10-12months.

Based on my analysis we will not be breaking $20k with conviction until late 2021/early 2022, however it is possible we ‘touch and reject’ the 20k mark prior to the official breakout. In the meantime, dollar cost average would be the most suitable approach, measured up with the correct risk management tools.

Look forward to the next projected circle, I have forecasted the next bull market top to be between a range $150,000 - $300,000 which would be established on or after October 2022. Depending on how price action respects the projected fib circle a clearer picture would be given as to where price may be headed and topped out.

Periodically, I will update this thread to analyse how price action unfolded.

Daily time frame (see my other idea for Weekly chart)