Hello followers and other TradingView (TV) users! Looks like all TV TOP authors make a bullish and 20k+ forecast for BTC! I have to admit that I definitely don't see Bitcoin price 20k in this year! But, but we could see some bull run when we have taken out some lower levels! If Bitcoin want's to go to the all-time high (ATH) then it must gain again the people trust but at the moment like in real life - make one mistake and if You want to win again other people's trust then you have to do things right in the next 8-12 times and then maybe people trust You again! So as Bitcoin, this year we have only seen a disappointment after disappointment! I would like to say that the first ohooo...moment to the retail traders/investors would be the 4 digit number ($10000) when people start to come again and look what is going on here :)
Let's jump into the chart! In the main 'picture' I have drawn an Elliot Wave forecast! This matches exactly with my support levels step-by-step! First two waves have completed and we are on the 3. the longest wave. This wave must find support from ~$5400 area, there crossing the minor trendline and the support area. In history we have three bounces from that price level (on the image below): *18.10.2017 *25.10.2017 *12.11.2017 After that comes 4. wave (correction wave) and have to find resistance from THE BIG Trendline since 17.12.2017 And now the last 5th wave, where we see Bitcoin reversal! In this area on the BTC chart is a 'clean' area (image below) where the price has rallied up and never looked back (12.10.2018), now we look back and finally retest this area! This area, to me, looks like a logical level where we could see the trend reversal and escape from the bullish falling wedge which also means break the main down trendline to turn bullish again! You probably think - wtf clean area, there is so many like this! But I say there is not so many as big as this one. The next is around 3k but I CAN'T be so bearish because I love crypto! :D
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RED CANDLE WAR! Just an interesting fact, at the moment we have 9(!!) red candle close succession in the 4h chart! I watched the history and from the beginning of 2016, we have seen this only two times and all those are been in this year: 16.01.2018 - 10 red 4h candles 04.02.2018 - 9 red 4h candles All those had a massive volume and big candles downwards but at the moment looks like no volume at all!
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So, as You will assume we move downwards and we move downwards inside a widened channel! We had one breakout several hours ago but not so significant and at the moment the price is back in the channel! As I mentioned yesterday we have a strong area around $6213 where we moved up and down, touched and bounced etc. but as I expected there is so much selling pressure and we bounced down! Daily candle close was bearish and from that, I could say BTC shows us bearish action today also! To be continued!
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I have on the major picture one typing error! The unfilled area is from 12.10.2017, not 12.10.2018! Sorry about that!
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We have another strong area on the chart (lower green box/line) 2h ago we bounced back from there and we got Shooting star candlestick pattern, which is bearish but now after the last 1h candle closes we break through from this level! Let's see we have mixed signs here again!
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...but let's wait for the 4h candle close also to confirm this little bullish momentum! 2h to go!
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On the 15 min. chart we have to fight with EMA's to stay on this level!
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We have here something interesting! A continuation pattern "Falling wedge" and if the 4h candle closes below this green box area and below this bottom wedge trendline then this is a pretty significant bearish sign!
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Continuation pattern "Rising Wedge"!!*
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UPDATE: If the candle closes like on the image below we have two strong confirmations on the 1h timeframe: 1. Break below the strong area 2. Break below the continuation pattern "Rising wedge"
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No bearish confirmation at the moment! Buyers react quickly to the selles pressure to push the price down and right now a nice battle between them! Buyers pushed the price back up and we see "Hammer" candlestick pattern! Which indicates - there are some bulls :) IF the last candle close would have been green and more above the strong area then it could mean definitely a bullish sign but this close was red and not above this box so, nothing tradeable!
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Another hour is over and what a candle close - just on the strong area! On the 5.min chart, we could see closely what the price did! Bounced up and find a resistance from the Fibonacci 62% retracement level and bounced back from 200EMA! At the moment who want to trade BTC then PLEASE DON'T, if You don't have inside info! :D
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We have some volume from the bottom trendline and from 6k corssing area! Since there we could see bulls have dominated this market but nothing special! Still found resistance from a trendline (channel upper lina) . If we break this trendline then we could say that this is confirmed that bulls are back!
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Above the $6150 - at least 1h candle close confirms bullishness! Below the $6000 - at least 1h candle close confirms bearishness
Otherwise it's just a sideways movement!
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I give to You little bit better outlook what I mean about the post above! ‘Candle close above the $6150’ - this means that when we get a close on this area (on the image below the light green box) we have a breakout from a “Rising wedge” chart pattern and also we have breakout upwards from the widening channel! So, we bounced up from $6000 (Hammer) and we break out from the two chart pattern = bullish hours/days ‘Candle close below the $6000’ - little bit different story. First of all if we close there (small red box on the image below) so that’s means we have a breakout downwards from a continuation pattern “Rising Wedge” and we have a breakout from widening channel + we take down the round number which is $6000! So, three bearish signs from there! Look closely those levels and see You tomorrow!
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If this was helpful then please leave a comment and hit the LIKE button! All the best to You!
thanks for thoughts, ideas and taking the time out to share with all. greatly appreciated.
VaidoVeek
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@mick_c, You are welcome! Thank You for your support!
esjaees
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It is going down further to test the high of Sept!
VaidoVeek
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@esjaees, You are not very optimistic, yes? :)
Thanks for sharing!
esjaees
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@VaidoVeek, I want to be. But the chart tells me a different story :)
VaidoVeek
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@esjaees, but You have there one Fibonacci drawing error, I think correct drawing would be from an April low to the May peak and from there You can calculate the reversal/take profit places!
You can't draw from the current low because You don't know if it stays there and like You expect it doesn't stay there!
Thanks!
esjaees
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@VaidoVeek, Fibonacci drawings are pretty subjective. I always keep two to show me a big picture and a smaller one for day trades.
In the larger one in BTC I use Dec 16 20 k height and Feb 4 6k low. Gives me the big picture. I took profits at .786 level around 9K in April and exited when it was not able breach MA 200 for three days. On fourth day it fell :)
By the way once 1 breach is confirmed, next is 1.272 retracement. That's my bottom.
The smaller one is more difficult to manage. But from experience I have seen when I use the current bottom and recent peak and use fib levels to trade and take profits, it works whether the bottom has been reached or not. If 1 is breached in smaller one, I simply exit the trade if there are no immidiate other support there and redraw the 1 line to the new low. Works like a charm!
VaidoVeek
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@esjaees, Thanks for the response! For me, the only subjective drawing is the trendline if You haven't put Your criteria's on the paper, Fibonacci is pretty much regulated! :)
I meant this smaller Fibonacci, to me this drawing doesn't make sense at all and here is why...
Thank You!
esjaees
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@VaidoVeek, I used to draw the way you mentioned. Later chanced upon some excavo and philakone fibs who do it the way i have mentioned for smaller trades. tried out and it worked better. have stuck to it ever since whether it is crypto, equity or commodity. thanks for taking the time to draw these by the way :)
esjaees
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@VaidoVeek, Buddy, do you see the advantages of drawing the small Fib from last low now? Price is stuck at 786 retrace since last two days and the small Fib neatly predicted that. It practically demonstrated what I was finding tough to explain theoretically. Thanks.