Bitcoin first pushes all time highs earlier in the week, followed by a 10K point retrace, only the climb back to the top and push the highs again. Wild price action for sure, but what does this mean in terms of the probability of continuing higher?
The fact that price retraced 10K points in one day is very telling and demonstrates the amount of risk one faces at these levels. It is also impressive that it recovered the 10K points and now flirting with all time highs again. Certainly an argument for strength.
There are two important things to consider here from a technical perspective. You can argue all you want about "halving" and whatever, but I am only interested in probabilities. The question I ask is "what is the probability this continues higher?". To answer that, I look at two technical elements: the wave count and the support/resistance levels.
The fact that 5 waves are complete and there was a sell off attempt tells me this market can sell at a moments notice. 5th waves usually signify that the potential for this move to continue is VERY limited. While anything is possible, I like to lean on the side of probability and 5th waves often precede corrective structures. As we have seen a 10K adverse move is very easy, so what will a legitimate correction look like? The point is the risk is very high on the long side, particularly for investors.
The second factor I am watching is the FAILED HIGH scenario (see arrow on chart). The blue rectangle represents a proportional area where price is HIGHLY likely to reverse. It has reversed once on the smaller time frames in this area. IF a bearish reversal pattern appears in this area AGAIN, it can be the start of the broader pull back. Keep in mind a price probe into this area can push into new highs, getting the herd all excited before turning.
The bullish continuation scenario would be IF prices pushes through the blue rectangle effortlessly and closes above it. That would signify continued strength which could take prices into the mid to high 70Ks. This type of price action is ideal for day and swing trades, while too risky for investing in my opinion.
I am not able to put a hard probability on this situation, but IF you had a clue that there was an 80% chance of retrace and a 20% chance to continue to 80K, which side would you lean on?
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
Interesting perspective Marc, the coming days will tell use more ... This idea has been selected for Editors' Picks, congratulations!
elenaec
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@TradingView, great we are down already on 80 % side
Midwest
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104k
peterbhc
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Weekly candle close above or below previous ATH will be where I am watching
akurg
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>>while too risky for investing in my opinion.>> What a ridiculous opinion. If one is an investor in BTC, they are there for a long term. Look at all the hodlers of BTC, nobody is selling. Do you even look at the actual data or you are stuck in your charts that never work as you expect. If they were working you'd be a billionaire already and left this board :) You think BlackRock doing dangerous and dumb investing while IBIT holds 197,943 BTC, worth over $13.5 billion as of March 8, nearly 40 trading sessions after the United States Securities and Exchange Commission approved nine new funds on Jan. 10? They should have consulted with you to understand this danger :)
noble1ones
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@akurg, HEY! He's ALLOWED to HIS OPINION, whether you like it or not!
stonksrcool
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@noble1ones, doesnt mean its right and people won't disagree xD
@akurg, he clearly means short term. Makes sense if bitcoin is rejected here for a short periode of time and visiting 48-52k usd again that would make it a much better entry price .. we all agree that ETF makes the market more bullish and most likely going up
This idea has been selected for Editors' Picks, congratulations!