The PURPOSE of this Fibonacci Study is simply to point out the potential future All Time High (ATH) by December, 2021 if long term wave patterns play out somewhat similar, if Fibonacci Level Patterns repeat themselves and if Diagonal support and resistance level patterns are respected as well in the future based on current four (4) year pattern. I'm posting the chart again (below) for one to be able to view the chart as intended because the cover chart is likely to be scrunched up by the platform.
NOTE: The 3.618 FIB Extension Historical Pattern for the ATH. NOTE: The 0.236 FIB For the Historical Bottom End of Distribution Period. NOTE: The 0.382 FIB For the Wyckoff Spring to mark the beginning of our transition from Phase C to Phase D in a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic. NOTE: The 0.786 and 1.0 FIB Levels as a MAJOR Historical Support and Resistance
I know I'm running behind providing updates to the usual pairs. I'll begin those updates shortly after getting a bite to eat.
Stay Awesome!
David
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I too am "skeptical" of us reaching those heights by December, 2021 as well. I actually thought 5k or maybe $9,500 tops was what we would have seen by December, 2017 but the market proved otherwise.
I apply the "Law of Diminishing Returns" to cryptos with a legitimate "utility" much different than I would apply it to stocks. Take Bitcoin for instance:
1. Bitcoin has a "fixed" supply.
2. The amount of new Bitcoin created "cuts in half" approximately every four (4) years.
3. As the price goes higher with less coins being mined every four (4) years, it requires less capital to keep the price propped up each day.
4. We have more investors in Bitcoin every four (4) year cycle to bring in more liquidity.
5. We have more retail investors mostly interested in HODL'ing. Which means less people willing to sell and more willing to hold.
6. Large Interest are coming into the space buying large quantities of Bitcoin for the purpose of long term "investment" purposes (10 years or more).
7. Central Bank FIAT Currencies are diminishing ever more in value every year; creating a phenomenon called, "Capital Flight." Which is the result of citizens losing "trust" in their countries Central Bank FIAT Currency and looking for other means of protecting their capital. Cryptos with a legitimate "utility" are experiencing growth in part due to "Capital Flight."
8. More crypto currencies other than Bitcoin are creating a fever for more investment capital into those markets.
9. Because of the way Bitcoin is designed, it will act like a dynamo in regard to profitability. And if you think about it; all the political, geopolitical, economical and financial factors currently at play in the world will feed this "dynamo" even more.
I do believe in "The Law of Diminishing Returns." However, Those returns will not even think about "diminishing" significantly until LONG AFTER MASS ADOPTION HAS TAKEN PLACE. Until mass adoption takes place, we can expect this "dynamo" to continue acting like a "dynamo."
I believe everyone will be surprised by how quickly and how high bitcoin goes in the very near future. My opinion of course.
Davethewave's chart was posted December 11, 2018. Does it really look like the price action played out flat along the lower boundary of his curved channel as forecasted? No... I'm not saying that to diminish Dave's work by any means. I'm simply wanting to point out the price action has gone up more sharply than he anticipated. He has us reaching the top with a Buying Climax in December, 2022. I personally believe it will be December, 2021 as part of the natural wave cycle of Bitcoin.
"The Law of Diminishing Returns" does NOT also mean it takes longer to reach a Buying Climax before falling into a sustained period of distribution. I agree with diminished returns over time. However, I do NOT agree with increased length of time to reach a buying climax before prolonged distribution sets in; as depicted in his chart.
In August, 2015 we went from $198.12 on Bitstamp to $19,666 in December, 2017. That is roughly 100 Times gain...
In January, 2019 we had a low of $3,322. If we went up to $300,000 in December, 2021, that would be roughly 90 Times gain...
Yes, that is a "diminished" return. I agree with that... What I do not agree with is the AMOUNT OF TIME to reach that high of $300,000 as shown in his chart. I have a lot of respect for Dave. I simply have a friendly disagreement.
I personally believe Bitcoin has wave cycles that play out over the course of approximately four years. With the first year being Distribution; the second year being Accumulation and the third and fourth year being multiple bouts of re-accumulation building up to a buying climax before starting over again with the first year of Distribution. One of the main reasons for this natural wave cycle of approximately four years involves the Bitcoin Block Halving.
Alright you are throwing the McAfee dick line stuff out here, I'll play. If I express this clearly, the value between the high and the low from the halving three (halving) times ago was about 3x greater than the value between the high and the low from the halving two times ago. If one extrapolates this the high after this halving might be around 50,000. One the one hand it makes sense that as the market cap grows volatility might decrease, on the other hand, all of bitcoin is what, 1/10th the size of APPL while TSLA jumps around like a mosquito and has now a much greater valuation than bitcoin. There is only one datapoint to suppose BTC tops out at 50K, maybe it is an average of previous halvings behavior, maybe it is higher than the previous two halvings haha. Fundamentally, there is a curious situation where governments around the globe are ordering large segments of their economy to stop working while printing money like drunken sailors. So it is sort of new that all the economies of the world are going down in flames simultaneously. I think at the moment silver looks even stronger than BTC on a technical level.
To look in the rear view mirror, the last time BTC crashed, there was Barry Silbert and the New York Agreement, I can't remember all the threads but Larry Summers, former President of Harvard, former U.S. Treasury Secretary, former Head of the World Bank was involved. The idea was if they could change the code over a small issue like block size they would have set the precedent for the NY oligarchy to say you need a value added tax to go to the programmers, our programmers, and this inflation level is just getting silly going forward. They failed, so they tried their killshot Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin Gold, , Bitcoin Platinum, Bitcoin Diamond, Bitcoin Dung, everything is bitcoin! That failed also, but we are still off the price levels from the high, so it certainly didn't fail entirely I will just say I don't trust what Barry Silbert is doing with Greyscale. I don't know what he and his handlers have planned maybe a 1:10 transfer, (which destroys the BTC) of BTC for Fed Unlimited BTC, i.e. FU BTC. Yes silly I know, but I think they are up to something. Far too early to get nervous, and I may be completely wrong and perhaps Barry is a gem, but if BTC manages to get to 50,000 I will be paying close attention to Greyscale.
Let me see if there is enough data to do one. We may have to wait till this current four year cycle is complete in order to have a "pattern" to duplicate for the next four year cycle.
Rule72
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Things are heating up so I decided to make a big breakfast. Thanks for you TA
Just got back from the grocery store. Wife sent me out to the store while she did some cleaning... Now it's time to cook...
Stay Awesome!
David
GrizzlyBearBee
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I just read an article by one of the Winklevoss twins, a founder of Gemini exchange, that says he feels that BTC is undervalued by 45 times... Implying that the price could rise to 500k. And if Banks and Hedge funds stop viewing the USD & GOLD as value havens, price could shoot up to 600k
To look in the rear view mirror, the last time BTC crashed, there was Barry Silbert and the New York Agreement, I can't remember all the threads but Larry Summers, former President of Harvard, former U.S. Treasury Secretary, former Head of the World Bank was involved. The idea was if they could change the code over a small issue like block size they would have set the precedent for the NY oligarchy to say you need a value added tax to go to the programmers, our programmers, and this inflation level is just getting silly going forward. They failed, so they tried their killshot Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin Gold, , Bitcoin Platinum, Bitcoin Diamond, Bitcoin Dung, everything is bitcoin! That failed also, but we are still off the price levels from the high, so it certainly didn't fail entirely I will just say I don't trust what Barry Silbert is doing with Greyscale. I don't know what he and his handlers have planned maybe a 1:10 transfer, (which destroys the BTC) of BTC for Fed Unlimited BTC, i.e. FU BTC. Yes silly I know, but I think they are up to something. Far too early to get nervous, and I may be completely wrong and perhaps Barry is a gem, but if BTC manages to get to 50,000 I will be paying close attention to Greyscale.