MekongMonkey
Short

Bitcoin: all eyes on the 4-hour chart

BYBIT:BTCUSD   BTCUSD Perpetual Futures Contract
BTCUSD broke through the 200 SMA (white line) on the 4-hour chart and has, so far, failed to reclaim it. And things get worse for bitcoin bulls; there's also a death cross (crossing of the 55 EMA and the 200 EMA , blue and red line respectively), and we are well under the 21 EMA (yellow line). More downside looks imminent. If BTCUSD fails to get back above 8700 soon, our previous target of 8200 is very much in play. Probably with a small bounce at daily support around 8550 first.

As usual, zooming out to higher time frames can provide more clarity. In a little over two hours there will be more information available:
  • Can the daily close above the 200 EMA (8701)?
  • Can the 2-day close above the 100 EMA (8703)?
  • Can the 3-day close above the 10 SMA (8707)?

So, if BTCUSD fails to get back over 8700 at the daily close, there's an easily manageable short opportunity here: we could enter as near to the 200 SMA as possible with a stop-loss above either the 200 SMA , the 21 EMA , or the death cross depending on risk appetite. Our profit target would be the resistance area around 8200, with a possibility to take some early profit around 8550.
Nov 14
Comment: BTCUSD closed the daily at 8633.50 (Bybit), answering NO! to all the above questions. It's bitcoin, so weird and unexpected turns are always a possibility. Nevertheless, this looks very much like the bears want to have a party.
Nov 16
Trade closed manually: Although the trend is still bearish, I closed my position around 8450. Sometimes when there's money in your hand, you just have to close it and take it. Momentum indicators on lower time frames are pretty beat up or reversing to bullish. Historical volatility is extremely low on any time frame between 4-hours and 12-hours. A big move is coming, probably around the weekly close. Which direction it will take is impossible to predict. I'll spend this Sunday on the sideline, watching and waiting. The weekly close usually provides lots of information, providing us with new opportunities to enter the market in a favorable spot.

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