XenoBiologist
Long

BTC - MUST RETURN TO THE MEAN

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
UNPRECEDENTED - on the 1d chart the 50 EMA and the 100 have crossed over, this has not happened for an extremely long time. This could potentially be the indication of a prolonged bear market setting in. But in the mean time there is still some price action to be had. Will we have a long bear market? I predict some high volatility sideways trading (great for traders) over the next month or so but not anything like in 2013. Although this EMA cross over is huge news.

BTC is currently sitting just above the 200 EMA on the 1d chart, and below the 50 and 100. On the 4h BTC is trading way below all 3 EMAs.

BTC has it's RSI on the oversold side currently sitting at around 40 ish . MACD has crossed over bullish on the 4h and is looking for separation.

In a previous post I predicted BTC would break down from a bear flag that had formed and it did - it almost met my target and bounced right off my purple box. It seems we are trading on simple formations for the time being and BTC is now forming what appears to be a small bull flag .

RSI and MACD both indicate that this flag could come to realisation - volume is steadily decreasing as traders step aside and algos knock out anyone trading on leverage. We could potentially see a break up in the next few hours.

By the looks of the flag on the chart BTC should at least break up to around the 10200 mark but if it were to want to come back above it's EMAs on the 1d then it would have to at least make it above 10,5k.

A reversal to the mean is in order. I fully expect BTC to come back up to the zone indicated by the green box on the chart. If you don't like high risk trades now might be a good time to be sitting in cash, and if you've bought the bottom at my purple box then good job sit tight.

BTC will face some major resistance around the 10k level and the 10,2k level, which historically have shown themselves to be extremely reactive - orange dotted lines.

I have readjusted the channel and still see BTC on a general upwards trend but much less steep than I had previously anticipated. This is healthier.

The only thing which could potentially change the charts and or targets are influence by Mt. Gox sell offs, but to be honest this is mostly FUD and psychology which causes the crashed in the grand scheme of things BTC will do what it wants.

The blue line and red line on the chart are downward trend-lines. BTC has shown itself to be extremely reactive to these. The blue one is relevant to a linear chart - shown - and the red one is relevant to a logarithmic chart. Both of these lines have an effect on the price - there must be a slight division/anticipation psychologically, a lot of people will watch one or the other and some both - so these are bound to have an effect.

This is of course not financial advice and you should do your own analysis.

Best of luck!
X
Mar 11
Comment:
Mar 11
Comment: Target adjusted bull flag failed to break out now we've got a double bottom. This is the 30min chart for more detail.
Mar 12
Comment:
Break out took a lot longer than I expected but it has happened.

Expect to get to at least the 10k level. Now we're testing pre-10k levels, this is a big psychological barrier.

I've adjusted the target box and the length of the upwards arrow.

I expect us to at least get to 10,2k and then maybe towards 11k. An update will be issued at the appropriate time to asses anymore upwards movement.
Mar 13
Comment:
Above is the 5min chart showing us a possible double bottom. A double bottom had shown up previously.

BTC was rejected on it's way up strong resistance at the 10k level. Looks like we're now seeing a strong level of support as bears and bulls battle it out at the 9k level. Might be a good idea if I place some stops.

We're starting to see a double bottom form on the 5/15 and 30min charts. I still expect BTC to make it's way back up and test the 10k level. This is still in agreement with my original double bottom call I made previously which was actually a much larger formation.

It seems bulls are strongly defending the 9k level.
Mar 13
Comment:
Above is the channel on a linear scale.

Also it seems that BTC is valiantly staying within the upwards channel I've drawn for it previously. It has not been invalidated and continues to take us up! Be patient.

I will also place an image below where we see BTC on a log scale, this just shows how reactive these two downward trend-lines have been (linear downward line seen above). The blue is linear and red log. *NOTE linear channel does not fit on log scale.

Comments

I never jump in on 5min frames but you might have found something interesting. Well done Sir
+1 Reply
There is so much crap on there, how can you see anything?
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XenoBiologist zukethenuke
@zukethenuke, You just read it, everything on the chart has a purpose. Is there are specific thing you're having trouble with? Let me know, happy to help if you're not rude.
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