4xForecaster

Update: 50% Retracement Potential | $BTC $USD #Bitcoin #Litecoin

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
2423 18 6
Traders,

A quick Tech-Note here on the BTCUSD             ( Bitstamp ) to suggest a potential 50% retracement as the crypto continues to build its strength back up. A rough estimation here sees a 50% retracement potential based on a 5-0 pattern completion, thus projecting a support near 554.65.

While an early market reversal signal did occur, we are still in wait of a bullish market reversal confirmation. A solid numerical base has yet to be defined before we are able to generate our geometric/mathematic-based analysis and forecasting.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
TradingView.com Moderator, Alias: 4xForecaster
Predictive Analysis & Market Forecasting


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Disclaimer: Forecasts, analyses and directional opinions generated herein are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. We trust that you will do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional, then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
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Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

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osceron
2 years ago
Have you compared with the former 230 day cycles? The BTC-pattern is pretty well established, imo.
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4xForecaster PRO osceron
2 years ago
Hi @osceron - Not sure what the "230 day cycles" imply, but the analyses are not price based as far as forecasting goes, so cycles are not included.

David
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osceron 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Well, I've noticed that BTC repeats in 230 day cycles with a peak on the 230 day new moon (+-5 or so days, the moon thing is more incidental, nothing to be used as a measure I'd say) - the pattern is eerie exact over the past five or so cycles, I've been trading of that 'map' alone for longer term actions (several days). Anyways, checked it and it's congruent with that "map" (it's on paper, so can't link - obviously)
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linkerlinks 4xForecaster
2 years ago
BTC where
Here you go :)
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osceron linkerlinks
2 years ago
Now - there we are :)
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flibbr
2 years ago
That move would make sense. . . .
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salento1211
2 years ago
BTC where
What do you think David? according to this chart you should buy. Do you expect a little more to buy better? immediately?
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4xForecaster PRO salento1211
2 years ago
Hello @salento1211 - Yes, some algos/market makers are capable to leave footprints that traders can trade off of in any given market or asset. It's up to the trader to pick up and trade off of these patterns, if he believes that they are reliable.
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icastor
2 years ago
it seams that bitcoin does NOT want to go that way (((( stopped near 650 level
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artem.koloskov icastor
2 years ago
More like it does not want to go up at all
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icastor artem.koloskov
2 years ago
that's true)))
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MAbtc
2 years ago
Is this still your position after two more days of sideways consolidation?

Thanks. :)
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4xForecaster PRO MAbtc
2 years ago
Hello, @MAbtc - There is no change in the technical profile, so no change in the analysis and forecast. However, most of the analysis was based on pattern recon and expectation (here, Shark completion and expectation of Shark leading into a 5-0 pattern, which is what Shark does in nature (i.e.: Shark pattern is a "pseudo-pattern", and acts as the gatekeeper to a X-A-B-C-D pattern, which is the 5-0 pattern, where "5-0" refers to the typical 5 and zero, or 50 percent reaction that occurs once Shark completes.).

Hope this all makes sense.

David
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ipkiss
2 years ago
and what you think about possible bull flag/pennant pattern ?
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4xForecaster PRO ipkiss
2 years ago
Hello @ipkiss - These basic geometric patterns are ubiquitous and have their own supporters. I do not pay attention to them in terms of strategy, since they do not reliably carry out the directional presage they are supposed to, and the fact that too many of them occur diminishes their predictive values.

Instead, I would look for a rare, but consistent pattern, such as the Shark, Bat, 5-0 as far as advanced patterns, as well as the Wolfe Waves pattern, especially when this one involves a 5-prime or 5-second counter-trend opportunity.

Again, the rarest and most reliable - some sites have statistical data on the frequency of the pattern, but these numbers do not matter as much as the choice YOU end up making in choosing and sticking to one strategy, whether it involves a pattern or not, and whether you can rationalize why one pattern is chosen over another.

David
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icastor
2 years ago
step by step chart is going by your scenario... I hope to see BTC near 560 soon!
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cezarone
2 years ago
it will be difficult
huobi did 50%
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4xForecaster PRO cezarone
2 years ago
@cezarone - Not sure what you mean by this number in terms of price action. Forecast remains unchanged here, and as with any other prior analysis, cross-exchange influences have netted zero in terms of completion of the forecasts or even influencing the predictive analysis, although influences might still exist at smaller timeframes in the form of slippage/arbitrage lapses, but I never really looked at that granular level of chart resolution. What counts here is whether we remain with the market by choosing the right winds and landing on the right island in this vast electronic ocean. So far, so good - David
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