In terms of , this idea sees the peak in November 2013 as the end of Grand Supercycle I, with Grand Supercycle ending January 2015. We are now in the midst of Grand Supercycle III.
Today, the fundamentals are much stronger than they were in 2013. The Japanese legislature recently amended their Banking Act to recognize bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as being legal forms of payment. Now that the most likely culprit behind the 2-year deadlock in the scaling debate (I'm talking about AsicBOOST) has been discovered, it is only a matter of time before the community finds a way around this obstacle. SegWit is soon to be tested on Litecoin, and multiple other scaling solutions are also being considered (extended blocks). The world is slowly waking up to the realization that the biggest question for Bitcoin is not "if" but "when."
Disclaimer: Take my T.A. with a huuuuuuuge grain of salt. I am very much a newbie when it comes to . I know a lot more about for cryptocurrency than I do about .
Since my original analysis, fundamentals have improved significantly with the adoption of SegWit by bitcoin. Most importantly though, there seem to be many institutional investors who are interested / eager to get into bitcoin, but haven't yet figured out the legal or technical issues. Many of them will probably do so in the coming months and will be the fuel of Grand Supercycle III which we are in the midst of right now. Central banks are not yet making large purchases; I conjecture they will fuel Grand Supercycle V, still years away.
I'm sticking with my original projection of a 10x increase from the price on May 3, which should take us over $10,000. That's probably months away, although in bull runs bitcoin has been known to double on the order of weeks rather than months. $10k may be conservative.
That said, I have most of my buy orders at around 850, and expect them to be filled soon enough.
One point I forgot to mention is that there is a general trend for the percentage retraced by the handles to decrease from inner to outer cups. Although perhaps we could have a drop to 850 or so as part of a wave 2 correction ...